• Early Returns: Post-Draft Mock

    May brings about several things: flowers, Spring, and Post-Draft Mocks. Prior to the NFL Draft, all mocks and rankings are fluid due to the huge changes that can occur thanks to the NFL Draft. Every year players quickly ascend or steeply fall in the wake of the NFL Draft. This year has been no different. In this two-part series, I am going to go over a recent mock draft done by FantasyFootballHelpers.com and friends. Each round I will tell you who I think got the best value, who reached the most, and some overall thoughts on the round itself.

    Round 1

    Value — It is pretty hard to get a ton of value in the first round but Antonio Brown going 1.06 to Josh Wyatt will likely be a great value. According to FantasyPros.com, Brown is ranked between 3 and 5 overall, making his fall to sixth, not unprecedented, but valuable nonetheless.

    Reach — I was the culprit of the biggest reach in round 1 when I took Mike Evans at 1.03. I’m a big proponent of the Matthew Berry adage, “You can’t win your league in round one but you can lose it.” Taking Evans before Brown, Beckham, and Jones may seem like Hot Take Fuel but I really felt that Evans’ floor is as high as any of the above mentioned WRs. He also doesn’t have to deal with Le’Veon Bell and Marty Bryant, or Eli Manning being washed, or a new OC. While I stand by my pick, I also acknowledge that many will view it as a reach.

    Thoughts — Round 1 went about how I anticipated with 7 RBs and 5 WRs being taken. As the picks went on I could see that last year’s RB success was dictating many drafter’s strategies towards an RB-heavy approach. I encourage you to go into your drafts with a fluid strategy that allows you to zig while others are zagging.

    Round 2

    Value — T.Y. Hilton went off the board as the WR9. I love what the Colts did with Hilton last year on the way to his WR5 finish. Of the top 5 WRs last season, Hilton was the least touchdown dependent with only 6 TDs. His targets, completion %, and aDOT (143, 64%, 13.5 yards) could all be replicated easily and his TDs could see a significant jump.

    Reach — I felt like Dez Bryant going as the WR8 was a bit of a reach early in the second round. He’s been incredibly TD dependent over the course of his career and his health has been consistently an issue the past two years. While he may have huge upside, we have seen that Dez Bryant also has an incredibly low floor.

    Thoughts — I felt like this round kind of sucked. There were a lot of picks that I wasn’t in love with and very few picks that I thought offered a ton of value.

    Round 3

    Value — I got Amari Cooper as my WR3. The core of Evans, Nuk Hopkins, and Cooper all but assures me of 450 targets with huge touchdown upside. I’ve never been a huge fan of Cooper but this should be the year he overtakes Michael Crabtree as Oakland’s WR1.

    Reach — Blake taking a QB in the 3rd round was a bold strategy that didn’t pay off as the rest of the group held off on starting a QB run. Another QB wasn’t taken for 18 picks so using that kind of draft capital on a QB did not pay off.

    Thoughts — There was a lot of good value at WR for people to draft in the third round. Cooper, Baldwin, Jeffrey, Robinson, and Watkins all have low-end WR1 upside. Through 3 rounds, you can see the divergence in strategy among owners.

    Round 4

    Value — You have to love getting Jarvis Landry as WR19 off the board. He is a polarizing player because of his lack of measurable but years of production have proven that Landry is a high-end WR2. With finishes of WR13 and WR10 in the 2015 and 2016 respectively, WR19 seems like Landry’s floor. I see him returning lots of value from this draft slot.

    Reach — Julian Edelman in the fourth round is a little rich for my blood. He’s at best going to be their 3rd option in the passing game which lowers the floor that you traditionally get with Edelman. Golden Tate went 18 picks after Edelman and offers the same kind of game but with more upside.

    Thoughts — A lot of polarizing players with a wide range of outcomes started coming off the board in Round 4. Players like Marshawn Lynch, Tyreek Hill, and Marty Bryant truly have monstrously wide ranges of outcomes but their owners must have felt the juice was worth the squeeze at this point. I prefer not to take chances this early in the draft but there is no arguing these players could all wind up as top-tier players at their position.

    Round 5

    Value — Jamison Crowder was a great value for Giana and I’ve already mentioned Golden Tate (drafted by Fugazi) as a player that I really liked. Crowder built upon a strong rookie campaign in 2016 and in 2017 199 targets will be vacated by the losses of Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. I think Crowder will see an increase in targets that will lead to a strong WR2 campaign.

    Reach — Donte Moncrief is touchdown dependent and nearly impossible to trust from week to week. If this was a best ball league I wouldn’t hate it as much but there is no way that Moncrief should go in Round 5 of a normal PPR draft.

    Thoughts — With Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram going back-to-back, I’m wondering who people think is the Saints RB to own. Two things have been clear over the past two seasons: Mark Ingram is a very good RB and Sean Payton hates him. In 2015, Ingram was in the running for the top RB in fantasy before his injury. In 2016, Ingram was ultra-efficient but was frequently spelled by Tim Hightower.

    Round 6

    Value — Stefon Diggs is on the verge of a breakout and getting him for my flex was a big-time coup. He is one of the best route runners in the league and frequently turns CBs inside out like Stevie Johnson in his prime. I’d have been okay with Diggs being drafted in the fourth but I got him in the sixth.

    Reach — Samaje Perine going in the sixth was a bit startling. Not to say that he can’t return value there but I think that with this group and how teams were being built, George could’ve waited for at least one round to get him. That said, I know how high George is on Perine and I’m completely okay with overdrafting a player you really believe in.

    Thoughts — If you scroll way back up to the Round 3 I explained how taking A-Rodg in the third was a reach and the three QBs who went in Round 6 further proves my point. Brady, Wilson, and Brees are in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers but available much later. Even with these 3 going, a true QB run wasn’t started which meant more QB value late in the draft.

    Round 7

    Value — Fugazi finally jumped on an RB and got Bilal Powell as his RB1. With how strong he is at WR, I love getting Powell in this PPR setup. Powell will have a high-floor due to his involvement in the passing game and likelihood of the Jets being atrocious.

    Reach — Jamaal Charles in Round 7 was not good. There isn’t a whole lot to say about it. He’s CJ Anderson’s back-up with terrible knees and a bad OL. I also wasn’t a fan of Cole Beasley because of how strongly I feel about Ryan Switzer. Switzer is a more athletic, cheaper version of Cole Beasley. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beasley phased out of the offense as the season progresses.

    Thoughts — Like I said earlier if you identify a player as “your guy” I’m okay with reaching but Beasley, Charles, and to a lesser extent Hunter Henry don’t have the upside to draft them ahead of some of the players drafted at their positions directly after them.

    Round 8

    Value — Paul Perkins was a guy I was targeting in the 8th but Josh Wyatt got him early in the round. I love his upside this season and think he was a nice pickup.

    Reach — I’ve never understood the hype behind Kevin White who had one good season against terrible Big XII defenses. Since then he hasn’t been healthy and is the third option for a bad offense. If the Bears go with Trubisky I would drop White even further.

    Thoughts — There was a mini-TE run in the 8th which is about when I think you can expect many of the second-tier TEs to go. I think that if you are mapping out your draft, you can pencil in the rounds 7-9 as a good place to grab a TE. Personally, I took Travis Kelce in the 4th because I felt as though with my core of WR and Kelce at TE, I would lock in a weekly scoring advantage at two positions by Round 4. Had I opted to pass on Kelce, this is the round I would have targeted a second-tier TE.

    This is the half-way point of our draft and there are some teams that I really like. Some owners have went RB-Heavy, others have went ZeroRB, and others have went a balanced route while still building a strong squad. The second half of the draft will be where teams separate themselves from the pack. Stay tuned for the conclusion!

  • 6 bargain bin running backs for your 2017 fantasy draft

    Football isn't back, YET!!! But there is always time to prepare ahead for your draft. Especially since the exciting 2017 NFL Draft just passed. We already know who the top guys are for every position on every team. This article aims to help you get a few names in your head. So, when your draft day comes you make the right decision to scoop up these Bargain Bin players. Don't you love going into a store and find the clearance section with all the discounted items? It almost feels like you got away with stealing something. That is the best feeling in a draft as well when you get value in the later rounds. The first installment focuses on the running back position. We will look at just a few guys who will be available late in drafts that you probably should go get when you don't know who else to select. Never waste a pick.

    Doug Martin — Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Martin was suspended for the 1st four games of the season because he tested positive for Adderall. It's been an issue he has tried to get over and he will now seek the proper help to get over his addiction. Doug Martin will go under looked and forgotten about. This will be a great choice to scoop a lead back past the 10th round. Doug "Mighty Mouse" Martin has Charles Sims, Jeremy McNichols and Jacquizz Rodgers behind him, who will all be competing for third-down work. They're no competition to a back they just gave a five-year contract to for $35 million.

    Derrick Henry—Tennessee Titans

    The days of Derrick Henry becoming a No. 1 are soon approaching. He's still behind DeMarco Murray, but Murray isn't your typical pillar of health. The second DeMarco is out, Henry becomes a top 10 talent. At 6'3, 247 lbs. Henry is a battering ram in between the tackles and has the speed to get away from the secondary. This is the best handcuff in the NFL PLEASE TAKE NOTICE.

    Robert Kelly — Washington Redskins

    Mr. Kelly burst onto the scene midway through 2016 season. He made a name for himself against the Green Bay Packers, with 24 carries, 137 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  He wasn't quite able to duplicate that performance, any other game. On the bright side, he was consistently fed the ball 18 plus times a game 5 out of the last 9 games of the season. Kelly has Semaje Perine nipping at his heels but "Fat Rob" is still a worthwhile pick.

    Jamaal Charles — Denver Broncos

    Many have given up on the former best RB in the NFL. Who hasn't been himself since 2014 campaign, where he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 1,000 yards rushing. The now 30-year-old back has gotten a breath of fresh "Mile High Air". I think it was a great but risky signing by Denver who needs a running game to protect Trevor Siemian. Charles is being put in a great environment to succeed behind the struggling C.J. Anderson who lost his job briefly to Devontae Booker. Let's be serious Anderson runs hot & cold like a faucet so this is a great opportunity to seize the moment and get a possible steal of a pick. 

    LeGarette Blount — New England Patriots

    Second only behind man-child David Johnson in rushing touchdowns, Blount had a resurgence with the New England Patriots. In any short yardage situation, LeGarette was fed and converted more often than not leading to 18 touchdowns. That's a hard stat to ignore when touchdowns are all we want from our fantasy players, especially someone you can grab in the last round of a draft.

    Joe Mixon — Cincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati made this choice for a reason. There were rumors they wanted Leonard Fournette at pick nine. But once he was taken Mixon was clearly the next best talent to wait on. The Bengals organization is known for taking chances on troubled youth. Despite his off, the field actions cost him a first round selection and scared many teams away doesn't make him less of a beast on the gridiron. Mixon already steps in as a possible lead back by season's end. I strongly suggest you remember this name most importantly that will get forgotten in such a crowded backfield.

    More will unfold during the off-season and training camp that will lead to more Bargain Bin Backs. But for now, these are my favorites going into the 2017 NFL Season. 

  • How Jameis Winston can be a Top 5 fantasy quarterback

     “Famous” Jameis Winston has proven that he can be a productive quarterback on a consistent basis. Will he take the next step toward becoming an elite quarterback? It's very likely and here is why.

    It's obvious that most great quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady have weapons surrounding them. Winston had a great rookie year having only Mike Evans and a mediocre Vincent Jackson. In his second year in the league he found a red zone target, TE Cameron Brate. The two of them connected for 8 TD’s. Evans got the majority of the yards downfield, but Winston used Brate heavily in the red zone.

    In 2015 Winston completed 40% of his passes in the red zone. In 2016, that number rose to 45%. That number is a little scary, but 5% improvement in one year is pretty good. From inside the 10 yard line he completed 58% compared to 2015’s 39% of passes. He has had some issues with interceptions which is an issue. His arm is sometimes too strong for his own good. He has no problem airing the ball out, which could lead to a huge season now that he has speed is Desean Jackson. However, I think he will start to ease up a bit and think more before he throws the ball.

    With the Bucs’ first round draft pick they selected TE O.J. Howard. The numbers for Howard are not all that impressive, but it is important to remember that Alabama ran the ball a lot. Howard will play a lot in the red zone in a two TE set. He is an above average blocker, so this could help buy Winston a little more time to move around or stay in the pocket which he already does well.

    By far the biggest addition for Winston was Desean Jackson. DJax has averaged almost 68 yards per game in his last 3 years. That is not all that impressive, but when Winston was getting it done with 2 weapons, and now he has 3 maybe even 4 weapons, the NFC South better watch out. One of the things that I really enjoy about Winston is his ability to extend plays. He is pretty fast if he breaks out of the pocket and keeps the ball, but he likes to dance around to throw it more often. It is fun to watch, but for fantasy owners it is a big deal. He often turns what could be a sack into a 15 or 20 yard completion. His ability to keep those drives alive gets him to the red zone where he has proven he can find the paint.

    Fantasy Football ADP for Jameis Winston

    Winston has a great football I.Q. He understands his situations extremely well for being shoved straight into a starting role and only having played in the league for two years. Winston has used virtual reality training in the offseason to simulate game-like action without taking hits. These virtual snaps will help him mature and further develop. I would just say to wait to draft him until some of the elite quarterbacks leave the board. He would be great in dynasty formats.

     (ADP Charts For Jameis Winston 2017)

    Fantasy Football ADP for Jameis Winston

  • 10 post-Draft fantasy thoughts from across “The Pond”

    1) Deshaun Watson will be the No. 1 rookie QB in 2017

    What Watson showed time and time again in college was his ability to win. No matter what the situation was, Watson was never stymied. With the surrounding talent in Houston of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Lamar Miller and even the emergence of C.J. Fiedorowicz at tight end, Watson will have only Tom Savage to overcome to earn the keys to the fantasy kingdom. No other rookie QB will have either the same opportunity to start or the same level of surrounding talent and with a top 10 offensive line protecting him, Watson will have all day to throw to his playmakers and is guaranteed to rack up points with his legs too.

    2) I want all of the Bucs

    No one has had a happier offseason so far than Jameis Winston. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers have added even more offensive talent to an already stacked group and so Winston is poised to take the league by storm entering his third season. 2016’s WR2, Mike Evans, was joined by blue-chip deep threat Desean Jackson in free agency and first-round TE OJ Howard, one of the best tight end prospects to be drafted in the last five years. The hopeful return of Doug Martin should also bring a balance to the offense and allow Winston to take advantage of thinner secondaries. All of the above mentioned players have the potential to rank in the top 10 of their positions come the end of the season and Winston in particular seems poised for a top 5 campaign.

    3) The Chargers WR corps is stacked and I don’t like it

    Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, Travis Benjamin and now rookie Mike Williams?! The Los Angeles Chargers have the deepest WR group in the NFL and it’s not even close. All five of the afore mentioned players could all conceivably rank in the top 36 wide receivers by the time the season has ended and while that seems like a good thing for fantasy, is it really?

    Keenan Allen is the clear-cut best WR from this group but after him it’s just a crapshoot. The argument could be made to take any of the other four guys after him and that will cause complications during draft season. With so many mouths to feed it will be tough to predict who which guys will earn the most snaps and so there is a likelihood of some of the Chargers WRs being over-drafted.

    4) Mike Williams will be under-drafted

    Speaking of Chargers WRs draft positions, Williams’ draft compatriot and new Titans WR Corey Davis has been dominating the recent rookie hype and Williams appears to have fallen by the wayside. With a playing style reminiscent of Dez Bryant and Keyshawn Johnson, Williams’ redzone production potential could have big impacts in fantasy this season. With TEs Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry drawing the defensive attention in the redzone, Williams’ jump-ball mastery could quickly make him one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets. Corey Davis is a more dynamic and versatile receiver, but don’t sleep on Mike Williams, especially when his ADP is established.

    5) It’s time to say goodbye to Tajae Sharpe

    It was fun while it lasted Tajae. The fantasy love affair the Titans had with Sharpe seems to have come to halt for the former 5th round pick. While he will still be a bit-part player in Tennessee this season, the addition of WR Corey Davis with the 5th overall pick in the draft clearly shows what the Titans think of Sharpe. Rishard Matthews was one of the best stories (and bargains) in fantasy last season and so the combination of Davis and Matthews is likely to steal most of Marcus Mariota’s passes away from Sharpe. Delanie Walker had a breakout season at TE in 2016 also and his role is likely to be expanded again in 2017. Even DeMarco Murray got in on the pass-catching party last year and will turn some of Sharpe’s targets his way. All in all, the Titans offense looks ready to roll in fantasy in 2017. Sadly for Tajae Sharpe, it appears he won’t be a major cog in the process.

    6) Jeremy Hill…you’ve been put on notice, sir

    No matter what your stance is on Joe Mixon, he is undeniably talented and if things had turned out differently he may have even been a top 10 pick. For the Cincinnati Bengals this is great value. For Jeremy Hill this is bad news. Hill has battled injuries and simply poor play over the last few seasons and now appears to be a shade of the running-back he flashed glimpses of early in his career. Giovanni Bernard restricts Hill’s use in the passing game and Mixon is better than Hill in every facet of the game. While he still has the potential to overcome this, Hill’s role will likely be reduced down to a glorified goal-line back in Cincinnati this season and he may be in the market for a new home in 2018.

    7) The 2017 Bengals are a souped-up version of the Houston Texans

    As mentioned above, the addition of Joe Mixon and also John Ross, the speedster WR, to the Bengals this offseason adds even more talent to a team with offensive skill position pro-bowlers coming out of their ears. Their offensive roster is somewhat reminiscent of the Houston Texans roster in 2016. AJ Green is a top 3 wide receiver and will draw coverage away from John Ross who will be able to take advantage of open fields with his speed. This complementary receiving duo calls to mind that of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, a relationship that operates in a very similar dynamic. A versatile, pass-catching running-back in Joe Mixon serves as a more explosive Lamar Miller and when healthy Tyler Eifert is a top 3 TE in the NFL, greatly outperforming CJ Fiedorowicz. With all that talent the 2017 Bengals could be a fantasy goldmine. Yet as we witnessed with the 2016 Houston Texans, the absence of a passable QB can render this talent useless. Your move, Andy Dalton.

    8) Christian McCaffrey should be a top 10 PPR draft pick

    Fitting that the 8th thought focus on the 8th overall pick and new Carolina Panthers RB, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s outstanding receiving capabilities for a running-back are of such standing that it is quite possible he will play more snaps at receiver than at running-back during his rookie season. His natural ability for catching the football and unparalleled after-the-catch ability will make him a superstar in PPR formats. With the all-round game and athleticism of David Johnson, McCaffrey’s talent far outweighs the risk of taking him high in the draft and positioned on a Panthers offense ready to rebound in 2017, it is likely McCaffrey will be a front-runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

    9) The time has come to accept TE as the new committee position

    Fantasy owners have always been scorned by the dreaded running-back by committee approach. Fun, exciting prospects can have their fantasy potential swiped away due to a division of the volume, rendering both players effectively useless for fantasy purposes. Sadly, it appears that this virus has spread from running-backs to tight ends. Committee approaches make sense for teams with no depth at the position but it seems even teams with good quality TEs are still employing this tactic. Washington is homed to star tight end Jordan Reed yet due to injuries journeyman Vernon Davis now receives significant snaps. The Chargers have recently supplemented Antonio Gates with Hunter Henry and while Rob Gronkowski may be the best tight end of all time, injuries have forced the Patriots into providing back-up for him in the form of Dwayne Allen. The realisation of the spread of TE committees around the league makes Greg Olsen’s career and fantasy production even more impressive.

    10) Carson Wentz will be the biggest bargain of 2017

    Carson Wentz was not set up to succeed in his first year in Philadelphia, being surrounded by arguably the worst WR corps in the NFL. However, the offseason additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith will allow Wentz to take chances and show-case his arm talent due to the big-play nature of their games. A solidified offensive line and a deep running-back committee (*sighs*) will keep the pressure off Wentz and allow him to scan the field and rack up huge numbers. The second year jump of Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota last year raised both of those players to fantasy stardom and there is no reason to assume the same won’t happen to Wentz. With a current ADP of the 11th/12th round and the potential for a top 10 fantasy QB season, Wentz could potentially be the Matt Ryan of 2017.

    Thank you for reading, follow Will Pendleton on twitter @willpendosports

  • Five reasons why Danny Woodhead will shine in PPR leagues

    It's easy to look back at what a player once was and talk yourself into him drafting him with hopes he'll exude greatness once again. When it comes to Baltimore Ravens RB Danny Woodhead, the potential to reclaim past success is definitely intriguing.

    Just two seasons ago with the San Diego Chargers at the ripe age of 30, Woodhead was a PPR (points per reception) monster who piled up over 100 targets en route to 80 catches for 755 yards and six touchdowns. He finished 3rd overall in PPR scoring among running backs, behind only Devonta Freeman and Adrian Peterson.

    Throughout his career, Woodhead flourished when he played in all 16 games with the Chargers (a feat he only accomplished in two of four seasons with the team). In 2013, he racked up 605 yards on 76 catches and six touchdowns which ranked him 12th overall in PPR leagues.

    Good situations

    Woodhead's been blessed with prominent quarterbacks during his time in the NFL. Woodhead played along the likes of Tom Brady (2010-2012) and Philip Rivers (2013-2016), both Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Both also helped Woodhead string together several seasons of 30+ catches, with Rivers favoring Woodhead the most after targeting the small running back over 190 times in 2013 and 2015.

    Now, Woodhead is again thrust into a potentially good situation playing alongside Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Flacco in Baltimore. When it comes to his potential for opportunity with the Ravens, Woodhead fantasy owners have plenty to be excited about.

    What we like about him now

    Top RB Kenneth Dixon is expected to miss the first four games of the season after violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Dixon accrued 41 total targets last season with the Ravens, and the coaching staff is still very high on him so don't expect Woodhead to stay the top back all season, but it does bold well for his short-term value.

    A gifted receiver, Woodhead possesess a skill proven to age like fine wine. Just look at how players like Fred Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald have extended their careers despite their age due to their catching ability. At age 32, Jackson ranked 11th overall in PPR scoring in 2013 for running backs. Fitzgerald ranked 11th overall in PPR scoring in 2016 at age 33. There's no reason to believe age could limit Woodhead as a receiver in Baltimore.

    The Ravens are also a very pass-oriented team, especially to the running back position. Last season, the 3-headed monster of Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon and Kyle Juszczyk combined for 125 targets. It's not out of the question that Woodhead sees 10+ targets in Week 1.

    The current depth chart among receivers in Baltimore should only help Woodhead's cause to be involved in the passing game. With top target hogs Steve Smith now gone and also WR4 Kamar Aiken, the Ravens receivers consist of an aging one-trick pony in Mike Wallace, underachieving and injury-prone Breshad Perriman, and a host of lesser-known names Michael Campanaro, Vince Mayle, Chris Moore and Kenny Bell. While the draft could obviously change things, it looks like Woodhead will see a prominent passing role at least early on this season.

    Woodhead's current average draft position is in the eighth round, right near players like Dion Lewis, C.J. Prosise, and Giovani Bernard. With the Bengals likely to add another running back in the draft, Lewis becoming less of a factor as the Patriots added several RBs, and Prosise playing behind Eddie Lacy, no running back in that group has a more clearly defined role than Woodhead.

    Causes for concern

    The biggest worry one might have about drafting Woodhead is his injury history. He's coming off his second ACL tear and is now 32 years old. While age isn't a concern when it comes to receiving ability, injuries at that age tend to heal slower and you'll have to wonder if his route running will be affected.

    Overall verdict

    Woodhead is a good value for PPR leagues in the eighth round. Draft him if you have a chance. At the very least, he'll be good for four weeks before Dixon comes on and may still have a role since the Ravens planned on signing him even before the Dixon suspension.

    Nathan Rupert/Flickr

  • Buy Low Targets, April Edition

    The NFL season may be months away but it is never too early to look for some ADPs that stick out. Each month, from April until September, I will be giving you a buy-low target at each position. I expect these players ADP to steadily move up as the season approaches.

    Kirk Cousins | QB12

    Kirk Cousins, according to MFL ADP data (12 team, PPR, Re-Draft) is going off the board as the 12th QB. This is a guy who has finished the last two seasons as a top-10 QB. Last season, Cousins was the QB5 and averaged 20.6 FPs per game. His .48 points per dropback (PPDB) was good enough for 9th among QBs. Cousins did lose Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to free agency but the additions of Terrelle Pryor, Brian Quick, and a healthy Josh Doctson should, not only mitigate those loses but actually be a net improvement on overall talent.

    T.J. Yeldon | RB44

    T.J. Yeldon is not a name that jumps off the page as a sexy draft target but RB44 in a PPR scoring system is too low. Last season, Yeldon played in 15 games and was targeted 60 times. His 50 catches were the main contributor to him becoming RB33 last season but at 23, Yeldon still has time to prove himself as an every-down back. But what if the Jags make the mistake of drafting Leonard Fournette? I think that this would cement Yeldon as a passing down specialist with a 60 catch upside.

    Paul Richardson | WR91

    Paul Richardson is a guy who has always had the talent to flourish in the NFL, he just hasn’t had the health. Last season, we saw glimpses of Richardson’s potential but for some reason, fantasy owners are not jumping on the Richardson bandwagon. Including the playoffs, last season Richardson had 28 catches for 419 yards and a YPT of 10.2 which is similar to other slightly-built players like Brandin Cooks and T.Y. Hilton. I believe that Richardson will be a starting WR for the Seahawks this year and easily become a top-50 WR.

    Tyler Higbee | TE23

    Tyler Higbee is bound to draw comparisons to Jordan Reed at some point this off-season. There isn’t a ton of player comp available on Higbee because he doesn’t have a Burst Score, Agility Score, or Catch Radius. That said, he is known to be an athletic guy playing TE in Sean McVey’s system. If Jared Goff can improve (can only go up from where he’s at TBH) his performance, I think Higbee is a lock to be a top-15 TE this coming season.

Podcasts

Episode 183: Who you should draft at running back

Friday, 21 July 2017 00:00
On this episode, Scott Sergent joins the pod to talk about running back sleepers, injury worries to the Top 2 running backs in this year's drafts and which rookies have the best opportunity in 2017. They mention Danny Woodhea
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Episode 182: Regression/bounce back quarterback candidates with Scott Sergent

Thursday, 13 July 2017 00:00
The Helpers are back and Scott Sergent, the video producer at Georgia Tech joins the pod to discuss prime bounce back and regression candidates at the quarterback position. They mention Eli Manning's touchdown regression prob
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Episode 181: Player profiles/rankings with Mike Tagliere of Fantasypros.com

Thursday, 06 July 2017 00:00
Mike Tagliere, lead NFL Writer for Fantasypros.com joins the pod to discuss why Ty Montgomery and Danny Woodhead's ADP's are too rich for his blood, why Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins could be on the verge of their biggest fa
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Episode 180: High-volume wide receivers w/Jody Smith of gridironexperts.com

Saturday, 01 July 2017 00:00
The Fantasy Football Helpers are back after a brief hiatus and ready to talk important stats that lend themselves to consistently sound predictions for your fantasy team. Jody Smith, 26-year Fantasy Football Veteran and Senio
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Episode 179: Getting an edge in daily fantasy w/Jim Sannes of Numberfire.com

Thursday, 25 May 2017 00:00
Stop doing these two things and your daily fantasy score will improve drastically. Jim Sannes, baseball and football writer for Numberfire.com shows you how to boost your Daily Fantasy score by avoiding the common ways of th
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Episode 178: Matt Harmon breaks down our wide receiver rankings

Monday, 22 May 2017 00:00
A bonus podcast for you guys. Matt Harmon of TheFantasyFootballers.com breaks down our writer Dominick's wide receiver rankings here. Be sure to check out TheFantasyFootballers.com Draft Kit as well. What do you you get out
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Waiver Wire

Jordan Matthews: Boring, predictable, but will exceed ADP value

Monday, 10 July 2017 00:00
In this article, we take a look at a player's potential to outperform their current ADP (average draft position) and assess the risks and potential rewards of drafting them. We look at opportunity stats including target share
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How Samaje Perine Will Help Your Fantasy Team In 2017

Wednesday, 24 May 2017 00:00
Samaje Perine proved his worth at the University of Oklahoma. In 2014 he had a stellar year. In 2015 and 2016 the stat line would suggest a decline in his performance, but that is due in part to sharing snaps with Joe Mixon.
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Why San Francisco 49ers running back Joe Williams is a perfect Zero RB candidate

Tuesday, 09 May 2017 00:00
When we look to draft a player to our fantasy team, we often seek the most talented players we can find. However, looking at the coaches offensive philosophy and which players best fit their system can be very telling in term
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Fantasy Film Projector: Alvin Kamara

Monday, 24 April 2017 00:00
When it comes to identifying traits in running backs that produce immediate fantasy value, proficiency in pass blocking, ball security, route running and receiving ability are often most important. These traits are valuable b
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Fantasy Film Projector: James Conner

Thursday, 13 April 2017 00:00
Editor's note: The Fantasy Film Projector is a process that identifies player traits correlated with fantasy football success. Those traits include receiving ability, route running, (points per reception leagues), play streng
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Fantasy Film Projector: Joe Mixon

Wednesday, 12 April 2017 00:00
Editor's note: The Fantasy Film Projector is a process that identifies player traits typically correlated with fantasy football success. Those traits include receiving ability and route running (points per reception leagues),
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Saturday, 28 January 2017 00:00

Lesson's Learned From 2016: D/ST

A Defense can be one of the biggest conundrums in fantasy year in and year out. People tend to go with popular Defensive choices like the Seattle Seahawks or Carolina Panthers rather early in drafts. Just because it’s Round 10 doesn’t mean choose a defense. There are still valuable players and handcuffs to acquire during the latter rounds of a draft.

Going by the finishing statistics of 2016, only one defense finished in the top five as their projection at the beginning of the season. According to ESPN Scoring, Denver Broncos D/ST had an average ADP of pick 67 which is asinine and only scored 152 points in 2016. That’s mid-fifth round in 12-team leagues and mid-sixth round in 10-team leagues. Let me ask you a question would you rather have Broncos Defense or future 2016-17 MVP Matt Ryan whose ADP was pick 114.

Think smart on average defenses can score you 150 to 180 points in a good year depending on your league scoring. Every other position eclipses those numbers by mid-season. Kickers score more than Defenses do on average per year, and they get chosen as flier picks in the last round of every draft. Last season, the Atlanta Falcons Kicker Matt Bryant scored a whopping 212 points outscoring the highest Defense by 46 points, that’s astonishing for a position we thought was worthless.

It’s time to implore a new philosophy of choosing Defenses last in drafts instead of Kickers.  Don’t panic when you see four or five Defenses already off the board here a few tips to finding the Defensive Gems of 2017. Choose a Defensive Unit with one of these qualities:

·         D/ST VS Consistent Bad QB Play

o   Look for a D/ST that goes up against a lot of inexperienced QBs like Brock Osweiler, any Cleveland Browns QB, or Blake Borltes. Zeroing in on a defenses schedule will help you find the gems you need that will help you succeed during the regular season.

o   Bad QB Play turns into natural points either sacks or turnovers. Rookie QB’s have a tendency of struggling against any defense, so look for those type of matchups as well.  

o   For instance, the Chiefs was the No. 1 D/ST of 2016. They took advantage of games where they faced QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trevor Semian (twice), Jameis Winston, Brock Osweiler, and Blake Bortles. All of which are either young or turnover prone.

·         D/ST That Creates Turnovers

o   Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or San Diego Chargers were barely drafted but were some of the top turnover leaders. Tampa Bay led the league with four interceptions returned for touchdowns, which is a huge boost to any roster.

o   Overall Arizona Cardinals high ranked defense lived up to expectation by creating a league-high 25 forced fumbles and 48 sacks.

·         D/ST With a Lethal Special Teams Unit

o   Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles are teams that boast lethal Special Team units. Cordarrelle Patterson, Ty ”Freak” Hill and Darren Sproles are one of a kind talents that can take any kickoff return to the house.

All of these qualities are pertinent to selecting a Defense that will be beneficial to your team and draft position. I learned to wait on this position and collect value at others in 2016. So, try philosophy in 2017 and see if you can come out more dominant rosters from top to bottom. It always feels good to get bailed out from somewhere you least expected it. 

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Saturday, 13 June 2015 00:00

Episode 73: The Adrian Peterson conundrum

On a special Saturday episode of the podcast, Rotowire's Dominick Capetillo stops by to talk about drafting players for logical reasons vs. emotional ones and why it's important not to factor off-the-field issues too much when drafting a player. He also states his case for Adrian Peterson as a No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts for 2015.

Follow Dominick on twitter here.

Subscribe to Rotowire.com to check out Dominick's latest analysis on Adrian Peterson.

View original photo from this article here.


As always, to support the show and more importantly help yourself gain an edge on the millions of fantasy football enthusiasts that are all reading the same information, spend a couple extra dollars and get more exclusive info with a subscription to FantasyPros.com. Definitely worth the small investment to help increase your chances of winning your league. This is especially true if you're in multiple fantasy leagues.

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Published in Podcasts
Monday, 04 May 2015 00:00

Draft Grades: NFC North

The 2015 NFL Draft has come and gone, and while fans eagerly wait the start of rookie mini-camps I feel it is the appropriate time to grade how teams fared in the draft.  The first edition of the Fantasy Football Helpers draft grades will feature the NFC North, with the rest of the NFC/AFC to come shortly there after.

 

Chicago Bears

Players Drafted

1.     (7) Kevin White WR/West Virginia

2.     (39) Eddie Goldman DT/FSU

3.     (71) Hroniss Grassu OG/Oregon

4.     (106) Jeremy Langford RB/Michigan State

5.     (142) Adrian Amos S/Penn State

6.     (183) Tayo Fabuluje OT/TCU

 

New Bears General Manager Ryan Pace was stuck with the task of bringing some ferocity back to the Monsters of the Midway. With the 7th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, and a new coaching staff that is switching from Lovie Smith’s 4-3 Tampa Two defensive scheme, to Vic Fangio’s aggressive 3-4 defense. After trading Brandon Marshall to the Jets in exchange for a 5th round pick the Bears were left with a massive hole at wide receiver opposite Alshon Jeffery. The addition of Kevin White with the 7th overall pick should provide the team with an instant impact player. Although White may not be as refined as Amari Cooper, who ended up getting drafted by the Raiders, White’s blend of size/power/speed make the Bears wide receivers one of the top young units in football.

As far as the defensive side of the football Pace did a great job of adding some meat to the defensive line. Florida State defensive tackle Eddie Goldman should fit in immediately at the 0, or nose tackle position in the Bears 3-4 front. Although Goldman does not possess elite pass rush skills, he is a massive human being that should allow the Bears linebackers to run free to the ball.

The most underrated drat pick for the Bears in my opinion came in the 4th round with the selection of Michigan State running back Jeremy Langford. Despite not showing elite athletic ability on tape, Langford lit up the NFL Scouting Combine after posting the lowest 40-yard dash time out of running backs (4.42). Despite having great long-speed, Langford is a versatile back with the ability to make plays in both the passing and running game. With veteran running back Matt Forte entering the last year of his contract and rumors swirling that Forte could hold-out,  Langford could be in a position to take over the bulk of the carries in Chicago as soon as next season.

Overall, the Bears did not make a lot of splash move outside of the selection of Kevin White, but they were able to add some much needed depth along both the offensive and defensive line. While the Bears rebuild was never considered a one-year process, new GM Ryan Pace did a good job adding some quality young talent that has the potential to become starters.

Grade: B-

 

Green Bay Packers

Players Drafted

1.     (30) Damarious Randall S/Arizona State

2.     (62) Quentin Rollins CB/Miami (OH)

3.     (94) TY Montgomery OW/Stanford

4.     (129) Jake Ryan LB/Michigan

5.     (147) Brett Hundley QB/UCLA

6.     (206) Aaron Ripkowski FB/Oklahoma

6.   (210) Christian Ringo DE/Louisiana-Lafeyette

6.   (213) Kennard Backman TE/UAB

 

As long as Aaron Rodgers is around the Packers should be one of the elite offenses in the NFL, but if they want the Lombardi Trophy to come home again it is essential to improve on the defensive side of the ball.

With the departure of Tramon Williams and Davon House to free agency the Packers were left with a gaping hole in their secondary. With the team’s first round selection the Packers drafted Arizona State safety Damarious Randall, an athletic safety who has the ability play deep as a single-high safety as well as the ability to roll down into coverage against slot WR’s and TE’s. Packers GM Ted Thompson did not stop there when adding young talent to his secondary as he invetsed the team’s 2nd round selection into the intriguing Quentin Rollins, a former 4-year starter on the Miami (OH) basketball team who has played just one year of college football. Despite the lack of experience playing football at a high level Rollins showed great ball skills and impressive instincts.

After the first two picks for the Packers I really started to question the moves the team made. The team drafted Stanford offensive weapon Ty Montgomery with their third round selection. Although Montgomery possesses some unique skills with incredible athleticism, he is extremely raw as a receiver and will most likely be relegated to KOR or PR duties during his rookie season.

Despite the selections of Ty Montgomery and Brett Hundley I feel the Packers had a solid, but not great, draft. Randall and Rollins should be day 1 starters for the Packers, and 4th round selection Jake Ryan could see some playing time during his rookie season now that A.J. Hawk has signed with the Bengals. Although the draft was not as flashy as teams like the Titans, Vikings, or Jaguars, the Packers did add two starting caliber players and should continue to be one of the premier teams in the NFC this season.

Grade: C+

 

 

Detroit Lions

Players Drafted

1.     (28) Laken Tomlinson OG/Duke

2.     (54) Ameer Abdullah RB/Nebraska

3.     (80) Alex Carter CB/Stanford

4.     (113) Gabe Wright DT/Auburn

5.     (168) Michael Burton FB/Rutgers

6.     (200) Quandre Diggs CB/Texas

7.     (240) Corey Robinson OT/South Carolina

 

As much as I miss the days of Matt Millen being the GM of the Lions and investing in wide receivers year in and year out, the Lions have shed the laughing stock label and become one of the better drafting units under Martin Mayhew.

Under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi the Lions passing offense took a step back, finishing outside of the top-3 for the first time in three seasons. Part of the issue with the Lions offensive inconsistencies lay within the deficiencies along the offensive line. With the addition of first-round pick Laken Tomlinson the Lions have an immediate upgrade in terms of pass-protection. During Tomlinson’s last season at Duke he established himself as one of the top pass-protecting lineman in the nation, allowing 0 sacks and 0 QB hits during his senior season. If Matthew Stafford is going to make the jump from being an above average quarterback into the upper echelon the addition of Tomlinson to one of the better offensive lines in the NFC North should help immensely.

For all of the dynasty owners that thought the departure of Reggie Bush to the 49ers would mean an increased role for Theo Riddick, those thoughts were quickly put to bed after Lions invested their 2nd round pick on Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah. Despite not having the frame of a typical 3-down running back, Abdullah runs with underrated power between the tackles and is matchup nightmare when used as a receiving option out of the backfield. With Joique Bell struggling to hold onto the ball consistently (11 fumbles lost since 2012) and just one more year left on his current contract, Abdullah could push Bell for the starting job as soon as next season.

While the Lions draft does not possess a lot of fantasy relevant draft picks, they once again filled plenty of needs. The additions of Alex Carter and Quandre Diggs to the secondary should provide some quality depth behind Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis, as the Lions continue to have one of the best defensive units in all of football.

Grade: B-

 

Minnesota Vikings

Players Drafted

1.     (11) Trae Waynes CB/Michigan State

2.     (45) Eric Kendricks ILB/UCLA

3.     (88) Danielle Hunter DE/LSU

4.     (110) T.J. Clemmings OT/Pittsburgh

5.     (143) Mycole Pruitt TE/Southern Illinois

5.   (146) Stefon Diggs WR/Maryland

6.     (185) Tyrus Thompson OT/Oklahoma

6.   (193) B.J. Dubose DE/Louisville

7.   (228) Austin Shepard OT/Alabama

7.  (232) Edmond Robinson OLB/Newberry

 

Teams of the NFC North beware; Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer is building a juggernaut on the defensive side of the football. After investing in Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes, and Shariff Floyd in the first round over the last 4 years, the defense is loaded with young talent just waiting to take off.

Although I thought the Vikings would go with wide receiver DeVante Parker or defensive end Bud Dupree in the first round, the team made the wise move and added the physical press-corner Trae Waynes out of Michigan State. Waynes, if all goes well, should fill in immediately as the team’s no. 2 CB this season opposite Xavier Rhodes.

The addition of Waynes was just the start for the Vikings, as they added ILB Eric Kendricks and LSU DE Danielle Hunter with the teams 3rd and 4th round selection. Kendricks, an “undersized” linebacker from UCLA should be an immediate starter for the purple at either WLB or MLB.  Despite being a tad bit undersized for an NFL ILB, Kendricks has a nose for the football and is underrated in coverage. Guys like Chris Borland have gotten me to realize that linebackers who are tackling machines in college, translates very well to the NFL game. Hunter is an intriguing defensive end prospect with elite size (6’5”, 252 lbs.), speed (4.57), and incredibly long arms (34 ¼). Despite being raw as a pass rusher Hunter has all the physical tools to be a dominant RDE at the NFL level. If Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer and Defensive Line Coach Andre Patterson Sr. can get Hunter’s physical tools to show up on the field, the Vikings could have one of the steals of the 2015 NFL Draft.

If second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is going to take the next step into being one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, the Vikings have to find a way to protect him better. With the additions of Pittsburgh tackle T.J. Clemmings, Oklahoma’s Tyrus Thompson, and Alabama’s Austin Shepard, the Vikings added some much needed depth to the offensive line.

Of all the teams in the NFC North the Vikings had the most impactful draft of any team. With two players that will step in and be day one starters (Waynes, Kendricks), and four players that have the ability to develop into starting caliber players (Clemmings, Hunter, Diggs, Pruitt) the Vikings not only had the top draft in the NFC North, but one of the top in all of football.

Grade: B+

 

 

 

Photo Courtesy of Neon Tommy Flickr Page

Published in Fantasy Coverage

Every season I like to put fantasy players into two different categories. The first category is a player that I BUY, or that I believe is going to possess above average fantasy value for the 2015 season. One the other hand, a player that I SELL is deemed as a player that I feel is either going to be a bust, or fall to live up to the expectations of their draft slot. 

Quarterback

Buy: Teddy Bridgewater QB/Minnesota Vikings

If you follow me at all on twitter (@JoshMenschNFL) you will know that I am a diehard Minnesota Vikings fan, but I promise you my love for the fantasy potential of second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is not just a case of myself drinking the purple cool-aid. Going into the 2014 NFL Draft, a lot of people questioned Bridgewater from a number of ridiculous aspects including his preference to wear gloves, his "skinny knees" or my personal favorite — that he wasn't tough enough to play QB in the NFL (Played with a two severely sprained ankles and a broken wrist in college).

Bridgewater came out scorching hot in his first career start as he picked apart the Falcons defense for 317 yards passing and a rushing touchdown, a performance good enough to win him Pepsi's Rookie of the Week. In the next 7 weeks, Bridgwater definitely had the look of a rookie adjusting to the pace of the NFL game, sporting a worrisome 3:5 TD:INT as well as ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards-per-attempt (6.6).

With those numbers some of you may be wondering why someone with numbers like this would be a quarterback that you would want as a QB1 in fantasy football. In the second half of the season Bridgewater looked like a quarterback that was finally becoming comfortable running an NFL offense.  In weeks 11-17 Pro Football Focus graded Bridgewater as the no. 3 quarterback in all of football (9.6), trailing just Drew Brees (13.6) and Aaron Rodgers (17.3), posting a much improved 11:7 TD:INT and a quarterback rating of 95.2. 

Going into his sophomore season Bridgewater has a chance to take a major step forward, for a fraction of the price of some of the premier quarterbacks in fantasy football. Disgruntled running back Adrian Peterson's status is still unknown, but if he is still in a Vikings uniform that will no doubt relieve some pressure off of the young quarterback. Besides the charades that have been going on with Peterson the Vikings have been very active adding potential playmakers to the offensive side of the football this offseason. The Vikings acquired Mike Wallace and a 7th round pick from the Dolphins in exchange for a fifth round selection in the 2015 NFL Draft.  Although Walace was not able to match the production in Miami that he did in Pittsburgh, Wallace is still a legitimate deep threat and should benefit from the downfield passing game Vikings' offensive coordinator Norv Turner likes to employ. 

According to Fantasy Football Calculator's average draft position chart, Bridgewater is currently being drafted in the middle of round 10. At this position Bridgewater is being drafted after players like Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Tannehill. Not to say Kaepernick or Tannehill cannot be successful fantasy options, but they do not possess the natural passing abilities, or offensive weapons Bridgewater does.

Sell: Peyton Manning QB/Denver Broncos

Now before anyone rips my head off for telling you to SELL Peyton Manning I just want to let it be known that I am not telling you not too draft the soon to be first-ballot Hall of Famer. What I am telling you fantasy owners is too proceed with caution with the soon-to-be 40 year-old quarterback for two reasons.

      1.  Gary Kubiak Offense

Anyone that has followed Gary Kubiak's career knows that there are a couple of things his teams features on offense. The first is a running back that possesses the ability to be successful in a zone-blocking system, and with C.J. Anderson they definitely have that. 

Due to the presence of a strong rushing attack, Kubiak has not been one to feature a quarterback that puts up gaudy passing numbers. Just for comparison's sake, while Matt Schaub played under Kubiak in Houston he only surpassed 4,000 passing yards three times, a number that Manning has reached in all but two of his 17-year-career.

The second aspect Kubiak likes to feature is a mobile quarterback that has the ability to make plays outside the pocket on bootlegs and roll-outs. I think it is safe to say that Manning is not going to make many plays on such plays. 

Despite posting the second-highest yardage total in his career in 2014, Manning saw his average yards-per-attempt drop below 8.0 for the first time in three seasons. In an offense that will be predicated on short throws that rely on the receivers ability to make plays after the catch Manning could see that average continue to slide.

 

      2.  Departure of Julius Thomas

I expect Julius Thomas' departure to Jacksonville to have major impact on the Broncos offense next season. When healthy, Thomas was one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL, posting a 108/1,277/24 line over the last two seasons. 

The biggest downside of Thomas' game lies in his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. In the three games that Thomas missed last season Manning and the Broncos offense took a step back in terms of productivity. In the three games that Thomas missed in 2014 Manning averaged only 203 yards-per-game, and two touchdown passes a game, equating to about 14 fantasy points-per-game with Thomas sidelined. While some of the struggles could be attributed to the quad injury Manning suffered, it was clear that he missed his safety blanket in the middle of the field. 

Overview

Obviously Peyton Manning is going to cost a premium pick in fantasy football drafts, but I urge fantasy owners (Who are not in 2QB leagues), to wait too address arguably the deepest talent pool in fantasy football.

Like I said earlier I am not telling you guys that Manning is a player who will bust, but I do think that he is line for a dip from his normal production. Manning is currently being drafted as the third quarterback of the board in fantasy football behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, coming of the board at the end of round 3. While there are still plenty of weapons on the Broncos offense to think they will be one of the top-10 units in football next season, I think there are better values at the quarterback position in fantasy football.

 

Photo Courtesty of Jeffrey Beall's Flickr Page

 

Published in Fantasy Coverage

Adam Inman of FFLockerroom.com and I recently debated the long-term potential of Vikings third-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. Inman took the stance that the offseason trade speculation surrounding the talented, yet raw, Patterson were valid and could potentially moved by April's draft. I on the other hand am of the opinion that Patterson is still well within the long-term plans of the Vikings offense, and have layout two main reasons why I believe Patterson will take a step forward in the third professional season.

To read the complete article of FFlockrroom.com take the link here:

 

Image Courtesy of Rick Burtzel Flickr Page

 

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Wednesday, 25 March 2015 00:00

Episode 51: The situations

Want to try out Daily Fantasy golf? Sign up here and enter your chance to win $1,000.

On Wednesday's edition of Treatment, The Helpers welcome guest Adam Inman, senior writer at FFLockerRoom.com. They discuss three running backs who will change the fantasy value of other players and themselves in the offseason.

You can follow Adam on twitter at @adaminman.

Adrian Peterson — Barring the Vikings executives holding a boom box over their head outside Adrian Peterson's estate, it's looking like All Day will be All Out of Minnesota at some point, most likely via trade. Only problem with that is it's going to take a lot for the Vikings to get rid of him. The Arizona Cardinals have reportedly been willing to offer a high-round pick for him, while Dallas is also still in the running. Most people know Dallas will be the ideal fantasy fit for Peterson because of their offensive line. But let's take a look at Arizona could mean for Adrian Peterson's fantasy value if he winds up there.

House of Cards

The Arizona Cardinals were a below average offensive line last season, ranking 24th according to Pro Football Focus. That's actually an improvement over last year's squad that finished dead last, but there's still plenty of room for improvement. You could argue that starting RB Andre Ellington playing with a severed tendon in his foot in 2014 didn't make things easier on the unit. The Cardinals also had some quarterback injury woes with veteran Carson Palmer going down for the season with a torn ACL. Still, there's room for improvement along the offensive line.

Keep in mind, the Arizona Cardinals drafted a top 10 offensive linemen in 2013, a draft that could've been given the theme of 'the big guys up front.' There was a lot of offensive linemen drafted in the first round of that draft and to a lot of teams badly in need of a good protection for their quarterback. Cooper was drafted seventh overall in 2013 and has only played in 10 games entering his third season and didn't play his entire rookie season. He's an X factor when it comes to bolstering the Cardinals' offensive and subsequently Adrian Peterson's value if he in fact does get traded to Arizona. Cooper is a guard and stands 6'2, 311lbs, he would be an absolute beast in the run blocking game if he could get healthy, but there's a lot of doubt that can happen as of right now.

As far as the rest of the offensive line goes, left tackle Jard Veldheer was solid after coming over from Oakland. He was one of the main reasons their ranking got better. The interior linemen such as center Lyle Sendlein didn't fare as well. Ted Larsen filled in admirably when Cooper was hurt but clearly isn't as physically gifted as the former Top 10 pick. Peterson, who's now in his 30s, will need to have a good offensive line to help maximize his fantasy value and make him worthy of a top 5 fantasy draft pick. I just can't see taking him as anything other than the 8-10 range if he ends up in Arizona. You also have to factor in Carson Palmer's age and the fact that his body will heal differently from an ACL tear than a player in his 20s likely would. Everybody heals differently.

When it comes to Ellington, he would most likely take the back seat to Peterson and see his fantasy value drop significantly.

And if there's any quarterback in the league that needs ample amount of protection, it's Carson Palmer. Guy is a statue in the pocket. But he can make throws when given the time.

He went to Jerick

Jerick McKinnon — The Vikings have another running back waiting in the wings if Peterson refuses to come back, and that man is sophomore running back Jerick McKinnon. A third-round pick in last year's draft, McKinnon filled in for the Vikings after Peterson was suspended. He wasn't incredible by any means due largely to a back injury that relegated him to the I.R. for the last five games of the season, but he was a very consistent back and strung together numbers along the lines of Alfred Morris in Washington in terms of consistent fantasy scoring. He scored 60 fantasy points total in eight games. He's 23 years old.

He started out with a bang when he rushed for 135 yards and 14 fantasy points against Atlanta (a team that allowed nearly every running back to morph into Bernie Sanders last season) in Week 3. Managed to rush for over 100 yards against a good Buffalo rushing defense in Week 7. Aside from one dud performance against Detroit, McKinnon never rushed for less than 50 yards as long as he carried the ball at least 10 times. Of the eight games McKinnon played last year, he scored at least eight fantasy points in four of them. If Peterson decides not to come back to Minnesota or demand a trade, McKinnon becomes an RB2 with RB1 upside.

The Vikings offensive line struggled a lot at times due to injuries to Phil Loadholt and Brandon Fusco on the right side of their line, but overall they weren't a terrible run blocking team. They managed to get a first down 68% of the time on third down runs with two yards or less to go. They also had a stuffed ranking of No. 2 overall, meaning they were second best at not allowing their running back to get stopped behind the line of scrimmage. Again, these stats aren't crazy impressive in terms of fantasy value, but I'm just looking at the positives here. Only Pittsburgh was better. So this is an offensive line that didn't get pushed back too often. They still gave up 51 sacks last season which ranked among the bottom in the NFL. The Vikes might opt to draft a lineman somewhere in the earlier rounds of the 2015 draft since it's one of their bigger needs.

They drafted guard David Yankey in the fifth round last year and he might challenge for a starting spot in 2015 now that the Vikings got rid of veteran Charlie Johnson earlier in March. Yankey's play will be a crucial part to the offensive line success in Minnesota. The Vikings decision on whether or not to pick up left tackle Matt Kalil's fifth-year option is also an issue. They will decide on that in May. A former No. 4 overall pick in 2012 who was named to the Pro Bowl in his first season, Kalil started off slow in 2014 (which could've been the result of offseason knee surgery which set his offseason training back) but he only allowed one sack in the final five games of the season. He also had some mental lapses which included an altercation with a fan after a rough game against Green Bay. If he can play like he did in the final weeks of the 2014 season, McKinnon should be much better off.

Eva Rinaldi's flickr page here.

Published in Podcasts

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Rick Spielman and the Minnesota Vikings front office are not known for being big spenders in free agency. Last season the team "splurged" on Linval Joseph and Captain Mannerly, two players that had ups-and-downs during their first season with the Vikings. This season the splash for the Vikings came in the form of the disgruntled Dolphins wide receiver Mike Wallace, after the team acquired Wallace and a 7th round pick for the Vikings 2015 5th round pick. 

After missing out on guard Clint Boling and defensive end Michael Johnson, both of whom re-signed with the Bengals, the Vikings turned their attention to improving the weakest position on the roster, the wide receiver position. Despite the near-diva attitude of Wallace, there is no doubting his ability to stretch defenses vertically.

If Wallace is able to keep his head on straight, and more importantly develop chemistry with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, this could turn into one of the more underrated acquisitions of the offseason. 

Offensive Fit

Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is known to employ the Air Coryell offense, an offensive system predicated on a vertical passing game. If there is one thing Wallace has it is the ability to get behind defenses with his world-class speed.After being acquired by the Vikings for a late round pick Wallace will step in and become the team's no. 1 wide receiver, manning the "X" or vertical role in the Vikings offense. 

Early on this offseason it seemed as if third-year wide receiver Charles Johnson was going to become the focal point of the Vikings passing game, as offensive coordinator Norv Turner called Johnson "far and away our best receiver". Despite having the measurables of a no. 1 receiver (6'3) Johnson struggled mightily during his first season with Minnesota making contested catches.  

Although many people question Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s ability to drive the ball down the field, Bridgewater showed massive improvements during his rookie season.

Over the first 9 weeks of the season Bridgewater struggled with is accuracy and timing on vertical passes, completing just 9 of 26 attempts on balls 20+ yards down field.

From week 10 on, Bridgewater started to develop good timing with his receivers on vertical routes. In the last 8 weeks of the season Bridgewater ranked 2nd in the NFL on deep passes, completing 7 of his 15 pass attempts.

 

Weeks 1-9

Deep Passing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#

Name

Team

Att.

Comp

Drops

Yards

TDs

INTs

Att. %

Acc. %

20

 Teddy Bridgewater

MIN

26

9

1

233

2

0

13.2

38.5

Weeks 10-17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 Teddy Bridgewater

MIN

15

7

2

234

3

3

7.3

60 

The biggest improvement in Bridgewater’s game came in his accuracy rating. During the first 9 weeks of the year PFF only charted 38.5% of Bridgewater’s deep passes as accurate. In the second half of the year Bridgewater seemed like a different quarterback, posting an accuracy % of 60. 

As you can see from the table above Bridgewater was becoming a very efficient QB on deep throws, posting more yards and touchdowns on fewer attempts than he did the first half of the season. Bridgewater's progression in the second half of his rookie season has to be promising for Vikings fans and coaches for a team that has been held back by paltry quarterback play since Brett Favre retired.  

The addition of Wallace to the Vikings finally gives the Norv Turner the vertical threat that he need to make his offense successful. As long as Wallace is able to stay committed and Bridgewater is able to continue his progression from his rookie season, the Vikings offense could be in a position to take a major leap forward next season.

Quarterback/Wide Receiver Disconnect

During Wallace's time in Pittsburgh he established himself as one of the premier deep threats in football averaging over 17 yards-per-reception during his his four years in black and yellow. 

After signing a 5 year/$60 million deal with the Dolphins in 2013 the hope Wallace would bring his electric speed to South Beach and become the focal point of their passing attack. It seemed as if Wallace was starting to develop into an all-around wide receiver after posting a career high 73 receptions in his first season in Miami. 

Despite posting a new career high in receptions, Wallace saw his yards-per-reception and touchdown receptions drop for the third straight season.  

According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics that separate receptions by direction Wallace and Tannehill only connected for 6 out of 24 attempts for 199 yards and one touchdown on passes travelling 20+ yards down the field. The most staggering statistic I noticed was of the 24 attempts that Tannehill threw 20+ yards down field, only 7 of those passes were deemed “catchable”.

 

 

Games

Receiving

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

Tm

Pos

G

GS

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Lng

R/G

Y/G

2009

PIT

WR

16

4

72

39

756

19.4

6

60

2.4

47.3

2010

PIT

WR

16

16

98

60

1257

21

10

56

3.8

78.6

2011*

PIT

WR

16

14

114

72

1193

16.6

8

95

4.5

74.6

2012

PIT

WR

15

14

119

64

836

13.1

8

82

4.3

55.7

2013

MIA

WR

16

16

141

73

930

12.7

5

57

4.6

58.1

2014

MIA

WR

16

16

115

67

862

12.9

10

50

4.2

53.9

Career

 

 

95

80

659

375

5834

15.6

47

95

3.9

61.4

 

Fantasy Implications

Last season Wallace scored a total of 170.5 fantasy points (.5 PPR leagues) a total good enough for the 21st highest wide receiver in fantasy football. In layman's terms, even with Tannehill's inconsistencies throwing the ball down the field, Wallace was still able to post number equating to a solid WR2 in fantasy football. 

The move to Minnesota could be a blessing for Wallace's fantasy outlook. Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner loves to throw the ball down the field and with Bridgewater's improved accuracy on deep passes, and the addition of Wallace's speed is just what the Vikings offense needs to make Turner's system go. 

According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com's ADP calculator Wallace is on average the 31st wide receiver drafted in fantasy drafts, slotting Wallace to be selected at the beginning of round 7. In my opinion that is incredible value for the speedster as he will likely be the Vikings leading receiver in 2015, and has a chance to produce his first 1,000 yard season since 2011.

 

Published in Fantasy Coverage

For Minnesota Vikings fans, the Adrian Peterson situation has become more of a soap opera than a regular collective bargaining disagreement. It seemed as if the saga was close to its conclusion after Judge David Doty ruled that the NFL unjustifiably used a new personal conduct policy to suspend Peterson for the full season, however the NFL has appealed this decision. There are a lot of rumors swirling that Peterson could be potentially trying to force his way out of Minnesota, the place where he was spent his entire 8-year playing career. While I see Peterson's departure from the Twin Cities as unlikely, I am going to go through possible destinations for Peterson if the Vikings pursue a trade. 

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys seem to be the first team mentioned when talking about a potential landing spot for Adrian Peterson. Peterson is a Texas-native, and has always said that he wouldn't mind playing for the Cowboys at some point in his career. Now that the possibility that Peterson could be available via trade, the Cowboys are being called one of the front-runners to land the former-MVP.

While the situation may seem like a perfect fit, I would say that the likelihood of Peterson ends up playing for the Cowboys is slim. The Cowboys are in an interesting place this offseason with their salary cap situation. The team currently has $130 million tied up into next years salary, $37 million of which is occupied by Tony Romo, and have several key free agents to address. 

First and foremost is trying to lock up Dez Bryant to a long-term contract. It has been reported that the Cowboys have offered Dez in the range $110 million with around $20 million in guaranteed money. Getting in the way of locking up Dez long-term are the swirling rumors over a potential domestic violence issue involving Dez and a female in a Wal-Mart parking lot. The Cowboys seem to be leery of offering Dez a deal with heavy guaranteed money before figuring out whether or not the tape really does exist or not. 

The other barrier in the way of Peterson landing in Dallas is the presence of DeMarco Murray. While Murray is currently slated to test free agency this offseason, I fully expect the Cowboys to find a way to lock Murray up long-term. Coming off of a career-year in which he led the NFL in rushing yards (1,726), Murray is expected to be looking for a deal that pays him among the top-5 running backs in football. The Cowboys apparently have different plans, as they have reportedly only been willing to offer Murray a contract of 4 years/$16 million, a salary that Murray wants no part of.

The dilemma is simple: Which player do you want to give the long-term contract to? Do you give it to the wide receiver who has been one of, if not the best wide receiver in all of football over the last few seasons? Or do you give it to a 28 year-old running back who is coming off a career season in which he was able to stay healthy for the full 16-game season for the first time in his career? 

Looking at the situation I expect a couple of outcomes. The first outcome I expect is for Dez Bryant to be hit with the franchise-tag. If you are unfamiliar with what the franchise tag is, it is a one-year, fully guaranteed contract that pays the player a salary in the top 10 percent of his position. The final situation I see coming to fruition is the Cowboys and Murray coming to an agreement on a long-term extension. There is no secret that Murray is what made this team go last season, and I feel like Jerry and the rest of the Cowboys front-office realize Murray's importance as well. 

Indianapolis Colts

The next team on the list of potential suitors for Adrian Peterson is the Indianapolis Colts. While some Colts fans may see this and thinking "please god do not let Grigson trade for another running back", I think that the addition of Peterson is just what this offense has been missing over the last few seasons. 

The Trent Richardson trade in which the Colts surrendered a first-round pick in last years draft has been a colossal bust, and it seems like Richardson may be given his walking papers this offseason. If Richardson is let go, the Colts are going to be looking for someone that has the ability to carry the load for their running game.

While the Colts could very well wait and add some talented young depth at the running back position through the draft, I do not think the team wants to wait for a rookie to develop when there is a proven, all-pro caliber running back available via trade. 

Could you imagine Colts fans; Andrew Luck and Adrian Peterson in the same backfield? How would defenses attempt to stop them? Do they load the box in hopes to take the run game away? Or do they play coverage and allow Peterson to get to the second level on a consistent basis? Either scenario has to be enticing for the Colts front office and coaching staff. 

As far as fantasy perspective goes, I feel like the Colts are the best place for Adrian's fantasy value, if he is not in Minnesota that is. The Colts are equipped with an elite young quarterback, an above-average offensive line and good weapons at the wide receiver position to take pressure off of him. 

If the Colts want AP to line up in their backfield in 2015 it could very well take another first-round pick, a price tag that I feel is well-worth the risk associated with taking on a 30 year-old running back. 

Arizona Cardinals

In an interview with the Pioneer Press' Chris Tomasson, Adrian's father Nelson Peterson recently mentioned the Cardinals as a spot that Peterson would like to play next season. If you remember back to when Adrian declared for the NFL Draft in 2007, the Cardinals were one of the teams that reportedly had a ton of interest in the former Sooner running back. However, when the Cardinals pick was on the clock they decided to pass on Peterson for Levi Brown, a massive left tackle out of Penn State University. 

Brown went on to an under-whelming NFL career in which he battled several season-ending injuries, and issues with the speed of NFL pass rushers. Brown was released from the Cardinals in 2012 after suffering a torn triceps, and currently finds himself out of football after being released by the Steelers in 2014.

Now as far as a potential landing spot for Adrian Peterson, the Cardinals and Colts make far and away the most sense for teams that could acquire the former-MVP.

The Cardinals are in a "win-now" mindset. Quarterback Carson Palmer has maybe three years left in him, so the Cardinals front-office needs to do as much as they can to ensure a deep playoff run.

Now the Cardinals currently have a young running back by the name of Andre Ellington. Ellington was a hot commodity in fantasy football drafts last season, but struggled to live up the value after suffering torn ligaments in his ankle. Ellington was able to play in 12 of the teams 16 games this season, and showed that he may be better suited for a change-of-pace role within an offense rather than being the focal point.

If the Cardinals were to add Peterson to their team he would instantly become the focal point of their offensive gameplan. I know that Bruce Arians loves to throw the ball down the field as much as anyone, and with the presence of Adrian Peterson on play-action fakes could be the missing factor in the Cardinals offense. 

I put the Cardinals as the second runner-up in the Adrian Peterson-sweepstakes behind the Colts and the Minnesota Vikings at this point in the process. The addition of Peterson to the Cardinals offense could be the stabilization factor that Arians' offense needs. 

Minnesota Vikings

The final team that I expect to be in the running for the services of Adrian Peterson is his current team, the Minnesota Vikings. In my personal opinion, there is no place that Adrian would be embraced or utilized like he would be in the Twin Cities. 

Adrian Peterson was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, and immediately took the league by storm. During Peterson's time with the Vikings he was awarded the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2007, and the MVP award in 2013 after rushing for over 2,000 yards one season after suffering a torn ACL.

It seemed as if Peterson was going to do something rare in this day in age, play his entire career for one team. However a wrench was thrown into those plans after Peterson was indicted on child abuse charges. Due to the legal issues, Peterson was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt list, allowing him to still earn his full $12 million salary, but to stay away from the team until his legal situation was finished.

It seemed as if the entire situation was starting to go away, as Minnesota Supreme Court Judge David Doty ruled in favor of the NFLPA and ruled that the suspension of Peterson was unjust, and is now being sent back to Harold Henderson, the "independent" arbitrary that Goodell hired to oversee Peterson's original appeal hearing. 

As of now Peterson is still on the Commissioner's Exempt List, which means he is still technically suspended by the NFL, but is also give the Vikings some advantage in that they are now allowed to have contact with Peterson and his representation directly. The situation is going to likely come down to one thing: money. Peterson is a very proud person from all the accounts I have been told and money is important too him, and playing the position he does I cannot entirely blame him. 

In the end, it's going to come down to the decision of the Vikings front office. Do they pay Adrian his entire 2015 salary of $12.75 million? Or do they try and get AD to restructure his contract to ensure more guaranteed money later in his contract? I expect the team to offer to pay Adrian his full $12.75 million salary (15 million cap hit) for this season, and possibly restructure his contract next offseason. Now people may look at the 12.75 million salary and say no running back is worth that just remember, this is the same guy that ran for 2,000 yards just 9 months after ACL reconstruction surgery. History could also be on the side of Peterson, as the Vikings have had a history of paying their veterans big money. If you remember, the Vikings paid defensive end Jared Allen $17 million in his final season despite being past his athletic prime. 

Outcome

Where Adrian Peterson plays next season is going to be one of the major story lines of the NFL offseason. While Peterson is starting to reach the back half of his career, he still has plenty left in the tank to produce at a high level for a few more seasons. 

I would currently rank the Vikings as the favorite to have Adrian on their team next season. After the Vikings I believe that the Cardinals and Colts would be the most attractive options for both Peterson and the Vikings front office. 

Compensation is going to be crucial for the Vikings if they do end up trading AP. Right now the reported asking price for AP is at least a first-round pick, and with the Cardinals an Colts both sitting at the end of round 1, I expect both teams to be associated with trade rumors involving Adrian Peterson.

Image Courtesy of Joe Bielawa Flickr Page

You can contact Josh with questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or follow him on twitter @joshmenschNFL

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Tuesday, 13 January 2015 00:00

What happened in 2014: Teddy Bridgewater

Shhhhhhhh.  I’m about to reveal something that only a small percentage of football fans, both NFL and fantasy football fans know.  Minnesota Vikings rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, finished his 2014 campaign on one of the all-time best runs by a rookie QB.  Because of their record at the time (4-7), most people stopped paying attention to the Vikings from an NFL standpoint, and fantasy owners who were gearing up for the playoffs already had a reliable starting QB, so they ignored the end of the season statistical barrage that will be referred to as Teddy Time later in the article.

It obviously wasn't all smooth sailing so I’d like to further analyze Bridgewater’s season and answer the question that should be on your mind.  What happened?

Coming Into the Season

In 2012 as a sophomore Teddy Bridgewater punched his ticket into the NFL throwing for 27 TDs vs. 8 INTs, his season culminating as the Sugar Bowl MVP in a victory over Florida.  He remained in school for 2013 and capped off his storied career with a 31/4 TD/INT ratio.  He was the 3rd QB selected in the 2014 draft behind Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.  A concern over Bridgewater’s arm strength knocked him down to third on the totem pole, but the Vikings thought enough of him to trade 2nd and 4th round picks to Seattle in order to select him with the last pick in round one.  In hindsight, the slip to the end of round 1 was the best thing that could’ve happened for Teddy, as he is clearly comfortable in Minnesota and is standing firmly at the head of the 2014 QB class after disastrous seasons by Bortles and Manziel. 

2014: Weeks 1-2 – Holding a clipboard

Despite being the favorite to start heading into the season, Bridgewater lost a camp battle to Matt Cassel that lasted all the way until the last preseason game.  Neither QB met the expectations of head coach Mike Zimmer and Offensive Coordinator/QB Guru Norv Turner, so they decided that winning was the top priority and they’d stick with the veteran Cassel.     

2014: Weeks 3-4 – Season debut, first start and injury

After Cassel went down with a foot injury, Bridgewater was inserted into the lineup mid-way through week 3’s game against the Saints.  With the Adrian Peterson child abuse story having just popped up, and with breakout candidate TE Kyle Rudolph going down with a significant injury, the Vikings season was in shambles.  All eyes were on Bridgewater to salvage any hope for the future of the Vikings franchise.  Taking over for Cassel, Bridgewater struggled in his first action against the Saints. However, his first start of the season resulted in a 41-28 rout over the Atlanta Falcons, a game in which Bridgewater threw for 319 yards and ran for a crucial TD, without committing a turnover.  Bridgewater led several long drives and consistently hooked up with Jarius Wright (132 yds) setting up three Matt Asista goal line plunges.  Things were finally looking up for the Vikings.  The Vikings' balloon was deflated however when it was revealed that Bridgewater suffered a potentially severe ankle injury during the game. 

2014: Weeks 6-11 – The low point, followed by steady improvements

Bridgewater’s ankle recovered quicker than expected and he only missed one game. However, his next two games, both Vikings losses, were anything but smooth as he was sacked 13 times against the Lions and Bills while throwing only 1 TD vs. 5 INTs.  It was apparent that the rust from the injury was there and the game was moving too fast for Bridgewater during these losses.  He looked indecisive and took too many sacks against the ferocious pass rushes that these two teams brought to the table. 

He’d settle down and show steady improvements in the next three weeks against lesser defenses (TB, Washington, Chicago), going 2-1 as a starter and throwing 3 TDs vs. 1 INT, but there were still two huge elephants in the room when viewing the Vikings' offense.  One was that Bridgewater was checking down time after time so despite the winning record against the Bucs, Skins, and Bears, fans were left scratching their heads asking themselves when Norv Turner’s offense would become even remotely explosive.  The other elephant in the room was the play of young, speedy WR Cordarelle Patterson. Patterson had a fine rookie campaign (627 total yds, 7 TDs) and was the NFL’s preseason fantasy football darling at the WR position, with experts placing him amongst the top 15 for 2014. The coaching staff did their best to feature Patterson early in the season but he was an utter disappointment in Turner’s offense.  Patterson struggled with route running, effort, and dropped passes.  He became less and less featured in the offense over time. His poor play opened the door for another athletic freak at WR, Charles Johnson.  Eventually Johnson would take over for Patterson as Patterson became a pure part time player.

 

2014: Weeks 12-17 - Teddy Time

The turning point of Bridgewater’s season actually came in a 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers.  Nobody had given the Vikings a prayer to be alive in that game and Teddy went toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers, even executing a 4th quarter drive to bring the team to within three points with four minutes to go.  He finished the game with 210 yards and 2 TDs, his first multiple TD game.

The emergence of Charles Johnson gave Bridgewater a legitimate big play, down field threat.   From the Green Bay game forward, the cast of receivers including Johnson, Greg Jennings and slot man Jarius Wright was a balanced, dangerous crew.  Each player had a defined important role.  They had their dynamic #1 WR in Johnson who excelled on intermediate and deep balls (56 yard TD on go route vs. NYJ), along with a short-intermediate pass receiver and pro’s pro in Jennings (4 TDs in last 6 gms) and the speedy sneaky slot receiver Jarius Wright (2 TD last 6 gms).  Bridgewater looked comfortable slinging the ball to this trio, winning 3 of his last 5 games and averaging 246 yds and 1.6.  He’d finished the season with 4 multiple TD games in his last 6 and completed 68%+ in each of his last 5 games.  The offense produced 30+ points 3 times bringing fantasy value not only to Bridgewater but to players at all positions on the Vikings offense.  

To go into further detail, during the last 5 weeks (Teddy Time) the following accolades that Bridgewater racked up were not only impressive for a rookie but for any quarterback:

·          *Second highest completion percentage (Behind Romo)

         *First rookie ever to complete over 70% of passes in four straight games

       *Eighth highest passer rating

       *Seventh highest yards per attempt

 *Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded quarterback (Behind Rodgers)

Lessons Learned

You may not have realized, but Teddy Bridgewater’s 64.4% completion rate on the season was the 3rd best ALL TIME by a rookie behind Ben Roethlisberger and Robert Griffin III.  Norv Turner gained more confidence in his young QB, and dialed up deeper passes once Bridgewater started to trust his offensive line and his WRs.   If you don’t catch my drift, his five game streak of greatness to end the season went unnoticed but was truly special.  With another year to work with Turner and his WRs, Bridgewater is sure to be undervalued and I’m pegging him as the breakout QB of 2015.  He finished with a 14 TDs and 12 INTs in 13 games.  Maybe it’s a coincidence but he also had this same TD/INT ratio in his first year starting at Louisville…the next season he finished with 27 TDs/8 INTs.  Take what you want from that.  A QB with this level of elite accuracy in a Norv Turner offense cannot be ignored.  Turner will allow Bridgewater to air it out starting in week 1 and a huge breakout could be on the horizon.  At minimum he will be a solid high end QB2, one that I would go out of my way to draft in the later rounds.  Those who like to wait on QB would be wise to pair him with another mid-level QB and play matchups.  Think of him as next year’s Ryan Tannehill.     

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Monday, 15 December 2014 00:00

Episode 38: First Aid (Week 15)

On Monday's Week 15 edition of First Aid, the Helpers analyze Seattle/San Francisco and Detroit/Minnesota and give out fantasy value to the players in those contests. Plus weekly awards and a quick preview of Chicago/New Orleans tonight. Enjoy.

Published in Podcasts

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