• Can Rashaad Penny outkick his ADP?

    Don't get sucked into that recency bias thought pattern. You often miss out on drafting a great player when you do that. 

    Sure, Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny burned you last season. But while you're stewing over his dismal rookie campaign, somebody else is about to draft a gem.

    We can call a spade a spade here. Penny is coming off a disappointing rookie season. He rushed for just 419 yards and two touchdowns.

    But hold the phone, Penny did a lot of things well in 2018. Plus, things are shaping for him to have a major impact in 2019.

    One of the traits that sticks out about Penny is his ability to make big plays. Penny had two rushes of 30 yards or more in 2018. He also had nine rushes for over 15+ yards.

    Not only that, Penny got better as the season went along. After Week 4, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and that number stuck for the rest of the season.

    Sure he started off slow, but many great NFL running backs plodded out of the gate. Shaun Alexander, another great Seattle back, rushed for 313 yards his rookie year. Alexander did just fine after that, rushing for over 9,000 total career yards.

    Excellent ADP value

    There's a lot of potential for Penny to blow the doors off his ADP in 2019.

    If you like to squeeze as much value out of the later rounds of your fantasy draft, Penny is a top flight option. He's going off at No. 67 overall according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

    When you look at the backs going ahead of him, No. 67 is a tremendous value. Penny is going behind Lamar Miller, a running back who's rushed for over 1,000 yards just twice in five seasons. Miller has also never cracked higher than 1,073 yards. He's the ultimate 'safe' pick if you even want to call him that.

    Penny is also going behind Derrius Guice. Guice is a running back we've already written about as a potential disappointment. But even recently he tweaked his hamstring and may miss the start of training camp. Guice also has a ton of competition behind him with Adrian Peterson, Samaje Perine, Chris Thompson and Bryce Love in the backfield. While Guice has a lot of talent, he just can't catch a break right now. If we had the choice between Guice and Penny, Penny is the obvious choice.

    Opportunity... it's there

    Penny has a serious chance to see a lot more carries in 2019.

    For one, he just has to beat out one guy for the starting job, and that's Chris Carson. The Seahawks let Mike Davis go in free agency, so you won't have to worry about that gross 3-headed monster attack.

    Chris Carson is coming off an excellent 2018 season, but his health is a concern. Carson recently 'had some work done' on his knee this past offseason. Details are vague and it could be nothing, but Carson already has some other injuries under his belt after two seasons. Plus, with a team looking to run the ball as much as Seattle is, you can expect even more wear and tear on Carson as the season goes along.

    Seattle's run heavy approach

    The Seahawks were the only team to run the ball more than they passed in 2018. And offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is doubling down on that approach in 2019.  

    The one minor knock on Penny's opportunity is Pete Carroll's unpredictable approach. Seahawks.com reporter John Boyle reports Carroll wants to adopt a 'hot-hand' approach. This usually translates to 'who knows I am going to just run some plays and see what works best.' This is often frustrating for fantasy players. But again, with Carson's injury history and Penny's ADP, it's well worth the risk for what you're paying.

    Work ethic getting better

    We always hear about players 'being in the best shape of their lives' knowing it's player speak. It's still good to see someone taking his game seriously. Penny is doing that in 2019.

    He hired a nutritionist in 2019, so he's taking better care of his body. He also met with Marshall Faulk twice a week in the offseason to study film.

    Are these game-changers for his fantasy value in 2019? Of course not. Most players study film and take good care of their bodies. But it's still good to see he's not exactly going off the rails like some players seem to always do. See Josh Gordon.

    Probability of outplaying ADP: Very high

    Penny is one of the best value picks in 2019. He plays in a run heavy offense. The starting back in Seattle has some injury history already and will likely need to take some snaps off. Plus he's got the versatility to make big plays in the passing game. You should be looking to draft him in as many leagues as possible.

     

     

     

  • Extracting late-round value in your fantasy draft: Ronald Jones II

    Drafting players who exceed their value in average draft position often separates the good teams from the truly great ones.

    So how do you give yourself the best chance of finding talent in the later rounds at the running back position? You have to find one that fits several categories.

    One guy with the potential is Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones II. 

    So what do we like about this second-year back out of USC?

    Steady producer in college

    When it comes to predicting success, there's no greater indicator than college film. Specifically consistent, strong production over several years at the Division-I level. 

    Jones has this quality in spades. He burst onto the scene hard as a freshman at USC, averaging 6.5 yards per carry and 987 rush yards. He finished 2016 with 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns that year. He finished strong in 2017, rushing for 1,550 yards and 19 touchdowns. And this was despite USC being a pass-heavy offense.

    I know it seems like an obvious strategy, but a lot of people end up reaching on an unproven back early because he has 'talent.' Sure, you're throwing some darts in the later rounds and not every player is going to fill every possible hole. But why not draft a guy who has talent but also showed he could produce at the college level?

    Not much competition to deal with

    The Buccaneers went extremely defensive heavy in the draft. They didn't take a running back and didn't even draft a skill position player until the sixth round, taking WR Scott Miller out of Bowling Green.

    Because of this, all Jones is competing with is ho-hum back Peyton Barber. Barber only averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season, so he didn't exactly blow the doors off the place. Plus he's on a one-year deal for a little over $2 million, so it's not like the Bucs are heavily invested in him. 

    When it comes to finding running backs who will produce fantasy points, you want to find a guy who the coach likes and will look to get the ball to. Volume is one of the most effective ways of predicting fantasy success. Even a mediocre running back getting 25 carries a game is better than a great running back getting 12 carries a game.

    Has the speed for big plays

    There's a lot of speed here with Jones. He's an explosive player. He was one of the faster guys at the 2018 combine, running a 4.48 40. He can stretch the field with his speed.

    When it comes to running backs, talent isn't the most important thing, volume is. However, the ability to rip off big runs at the second level is still very helpful. Often times a big 56-run will mitigate 10 runs of 3 yards or less. You want a running back with the capability of hitting a home run, and Jones has that.

    He's a dual threat

    Jones is a good route runner, has soft hands and catches the ball well. He wasn't asked to catch the ball a ton at USC, but he made the most of it when he did.

    Key tip: Receiving running backs are deadly. If you look at the top running backs from last season like Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley, they all racked up a ton of targets.

    His current ADP is juicy

    Jones is going in the 9th-10th round in most fantasy drafts. Meaning you can get him at a steal. He's going around the likes of Adrian Peterson and Austin Ekeler. Now, his ADP will likely rise, especially if he shows out during preseason.

    Overall, Jones is a worthy dart throw running back this season because of his speed and opportunity.

     

     

     

  • Darrell Henderson is a potential league winner in 2019

    Todd Gurley has some issues, and people should be getting excited for rookie Darrel Henderson in 2019.

    ESPN's Lisa Thiry reported earlier that Todd Gurley will miss the entire preseason.

    While many weren't too concerned about Gurley's knee, it's definitely starting to look like there could be some issues now.

    If that's the case, it's important to adapt to the situation as a fantasy owner. That's why we look to the next guy up. Darrell Henderson.

    Why it matters for fantasy

    Gurley battled injury woes down the stretch last year, and he was the worst kind of fantasy player because of it.

    You didn't know what you were going to get with Gurley. But it was tough to bench him because he was such a stud.

    Also, we saw how good a backup running back can be behind the Rams potent offensive line.

    Running back C.J. Anderson had three games of 100+ yards in the playoffs last season, and was by the far the Rams best back in that stretch. With Anderson gone now, there's now more room in the offense for volume. 

    Why you should be excited about Henderson's immediate fantasy potential

    Henderson is by far the most explosive back coming out of the draft this season. He was also one of the most efficient running backs in college football history. You can read more about his stats and traits in our 'Talent Evaluation' section here.

    Also, the Rams traded up to get Henderson in the third round. Draft capital investment is often a good indicator of how soon a rookie sees the field. This shows that even if Gurley is healthy, the Rams are likely going to use Henderson anyway, making him valuable in deeper leagues.

    To top it off, you can currently get Henderson in the 8th round according to FFCalculator. Making him an absolute steal there.

    Is Malcolm Brown a problem?

    While Henderson has some opportunity, Malcolm Brown is still in the mix. The Rams hung on to him in the offseason and he's a talented enough back that could be a starter on several other teams.

    But should we get worried about Brown stealing touches?

    There's definitely some cause to worry. Brown is definitely going to get a shot as well. So he's a welcome dart throw as well.

    The current state of the Rams as a team

    The Rams burst out of the gate last season as one of the best offenses in the league. But many factors contributed to their team's slow decline near the end of the season.

    They had injuries to their key players, including key wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Plus Gurley's play declined as the season went along. Defenses also started to figure out Sean McVay's style, which lead to more teams beating them in the playoffs.

    But despite that, the Rams are still a very good offense heading into 2019. They'll have Kupp back. Sean McVay will also have to evolve his play style once again to counter other coaches counters. But he's proven to be a smart enough guy where I'm confident he'll do that.

    Final verdict

    Overall, Henderson has the potential to be a league winner for fantasy teams in 2019. The Rams offense will be among the best in the league. There's opportunity for high volume with Gurley's knee issues. The Rams showed a lot of interest trading up to get him in the third round.

    Lastly, Henderson is one of the most explosive rookie backs this season. Draft him in as many leagues as you can.

    Link to original author of photo 

     

  • Is Josh Jacobs really the best rookie RB to draft in 2019?

    The 2019 running back class didn't have a once-in-a-generation star. But many rookie running backs still have a chance to score massive amounts of fantasy points in 2019. As we know, landing spot matters a lot for running backs. And in the 2019 NFL Draft, many backs got drafted to teams in dire need of a running back.

    The most talented of the bunch was clearly Alabama prospect Josh Jacobs. But the question remains, is Josh Jacobs the best fantasy rookie running back to draft in 2019?

    The answer to that is undoubtedly yes. Don't say 'yeah but I think Miles Sanders blah blah blah or David Montgomery blah blah blah.' I know you (the reader) are saying that right now. But take off your contrarian hipster glasses, put down the Pabst Blue Ribbon, and keep on reading.

    Why Jacobs the better option

    Sure, there were plenty of other talented rookie running backs with promise. Miles Sanders went in the second round to Philadelphia, a team with a good offensive line and only an injury-riddled Jordan Howard to beat out. David Montgomery went to Chicago, which was a solid spot since there's no clear-cut starting RB on the roster. Both backs have good potential opportunity in 2019, but Jacobs rises above them all for several reasons.

    For one, there was no running back in a weak 2019 class more NFL ready than Jacobs. At Alabama, he showed he could run between the tackles, catch the ball and also pass protect (a common bugaboo among rookies). No running back in this rookie class was that solid in all three phases like Jacobs.

    Sanders and Montgomery, while talented, have some holes. Sanders runs tentative at times and Montgomery lacks long speed to separate from defenses.

    Jacobs isn't a speed demon either, but he's by no means slow. Jacobs even improved his 40-time on his second Pro Day, clocking in at 4.52 compared to 4.6 he ran on his first attempt. Plus, Jacobs' size creates more chances to break tackles and gives him a chance to rip off a big run.

    Where Jacobs can become an elite fantasy RB

    Jacobs is no doubt an excellent inside runner. He has great balance and runs with some anger to create yards after contact. According to Rotoworld's Graham Barfield (creator of Yards Created metric for Running Backs), Jacobs tied Saquon Barkley for 3rd highest percentage of carries to create 5 or more yards. This shows his propensity to break tackles.

    That alone is exciting. But there's an even bigger factor that could help Jacobs be the man in 2019.

    That factor comes in the passing game. Jacobs averaged 2.4 receiving yards per route in 2018, according to Graham Barfield. This ranked second among all rookie running backs. A good route runner who moves incredibly well for a guy his size, Jacobs can adjust his body to make difficult catches in ways most 220 lb backs can't. You can see some highlights of in this article here. He also has massive hands 10 inch hands, an obvious good trait for a pass catcher.

    Receivers do fantasy better

    In 2018, the Top 5 running backs (Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery) all had at least 80 targets. And 3 of the 5 (Kamara, Barkley, and McCaffery) had over 100 targets. In 2017, three of the Top 5 fantasy RB's had over 87 targets, and the fourth had 79. While this is only a two-year sample, it's looking more like target numbers are becoming a huge indicator for fantasy success among running backs.

    Catching running backs score fantasy points regardless of game script. They rarely post '0' point weeks. If the defense is stopping them in the run game, they can flare out on screen passes and create yards in the open field. If the defense has slow linebackers, they can exploit those matchups for big gains in the pass game.

    Catching the ball is also good because it allows running backs to gain bigger chunks of yards in the open field. We saw Kareem Hunt do this especially well in 2017 on screen passes. Same thing with Barkley on the Giants in 2018. Jacobs isn't incredibly elusive like those backs, but he's fast enough and athletic enough to make people miss in the open field as well.

    The right spot with Oakland

    Jacobs steps into a golden opportunity with Oakland to showcase his receiving ability. With only Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington to contend with, it's tough to see Jacobs not starting immediately in 2019.

    The Raiders made some major splashes in free agency. grabbing arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Antonio Brown. They also added Tyrell Williams, a high-quality No. 2 who was a consistent touchdown producer with the Chargers. Williams is already impressing coaches in practice, and these receivers will move the chains and give Oakland more scoring opportunities in the red zone. When the Raiders get done around the goal line, Jacobs will be the top candidate to punch it in. This gives him added touchdown value.

    The big question is quarterback Derek Carr. Will he be able to return to his 2016 form when he was a Pro Bowl quaterback? He hasn't played at that level since the injury, but you could argue 2018 was a rebuilding year since the Raiders lost key weapons in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Carr has proven he's capable when he has the tools, and the Raiders certainly have them in 2019.

    Even more promising is the game script within the division. The Raiders play in the loaded AFC West, featuring MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City and future Hall of Famer Philip Rivers. There's going to be a lot of shootouts in these games, leading to more chances of getting Jacobs involved in the passing game and score touchdowns.

    Rookie running backs are the best kind of rookie

    Running back is a young man's position and so it's not surprising to see Jacobs as one of the top contenders to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year award. If you're playing the odds, three of the last five AP Offensive Rookie of The Year players were running backs. Those were Saquon Barkley (2018), Alvin Kamara (2017), and Todd Gurley (2015). All running backs finished in the Top 5 in standard fantasy scoring at their respective position.

    To go deeper on one of them Alvin Kamara finished 4th overall in standard fantasy scoring as a rookie. A big part of that was his 105 targets, which allowed him to snag 81 catches and 709 receiving yards. Kamara also had the fortune of playing with one of the three best quarterbacks of this generation in Drew Brees. 

    But while it's safe to say you won't expect Jacobs to amass 105 targets as a rookie since the Raiders are unlikely to be THAT prolific on offense, there's still plenty of opportunity to utilize his catching ability. The Raiders passed the ball 59 percent of the time last season, good for 12th overall. It's expected they'll throw more given their new weapons in Brown and Williams on the outside. So expect Jacobs to see his fair share of targets in 2019.

    Final verdict

    Josh Jacobs is an NFL ready running back. He has a scintillating opportunity with zero running backs ahead of him on the depth chart. There's potential for Oakland to give him plenty of targets since they're a fairly pass-friendly offense. He'll also be playing in a high-scoring division where several games could become shootouts.

    He's a no-brainer RB2 in all standard scoring leagues this season. You should also snag him a ton in best ball and he should be one of the first picks off the board in dynasty leagues at running back.

    To read more about Josh Jacobs, check out this piece on what his best traits are here.

    To see all our rookie coverage, check out our 'Talent Evaluation' section here.

  • Why you should avoid RB's like Derrius Guice in 2019

    If there's one thing you must know about dominating your fantasy draft, it's this. You must extract value in the later rounds.

    Washington Redskins running back Derrius Guice is the kind of player you might think about taking. But his ADP is way too high according to FFCalculator. Here's why you should avoid him in re-draft this season.

    Why is his ADP where it is?

    People's confidence in Guice likely stems from two variables. For one, he's young. At just 21 years of age, he best years are ahead of him. 

    Plus, he's got talent. He was drafted in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. So Washington is invested in him and wants him on the field.

    Both of those are true enough. But if you look closer at Washington's offensive situation, you'll see Guice is drastically overvalued at that price.

    Here are the main reasons Guice should be avoided in re-draft this season.

    No opportunity in the passing game

    First, you don't want to draft a guy with zero receiving floor, and Guice is that guy this year. Chris Thompson is a dynamite screen receiver who's magic in the open field. Thompson will likely see the targets on third and long passing situations, not Guice.

    Receiving ability is how good fantasy backs become great fantasy backs. Here are a few backs with higher ADP's than Guice you could look at here.

    One example is Kareem Hunt, who is 79 overall. Yes, I know he's suspended for a bit and Nick Chubb is there. Still, Cleveland's offense will be much better and Hunt will likely see plenty of red zone receiving opportunities as a result. Plus, running backs who sit out tend to fare better when they actually do get back on the field due to lack of wear and tear. Le'Veon Bell's stats are an example of this.

    Even Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders have better opportunity in Philadelphia's offense. You could draft Howard at 62 or Sanders at 114, respectively. The Eagles have a stout offensive line. They also have an MVP-caliber quarterback returning from injury in Carson Wentz.

    Not only that, Guice is also competing with Adrian Peterson for ground touches. Peterson managed to turn the clock back enough to earn another year with Washington. The Redskins are committed to using him for at least this season.

    Not enough red zone trips

    This piggy backs on argument No. 1. You don't want a running back in a bad offense, and Guice will likely be in one.

    The Redskins are a poop show at the skill positions, particularly quarterback and receiver.

    They'll be trotting out a heavy dose of Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. Both quarterbacks lack big arm strength and Keenum is coming off a poor season with the Denver Broncos. First-round rookie Dwayne Haskins will likely take his lumps at some point as well. Expect plenty of poor field position spots for Washington in 2019.

    At receiver, their current top guy is Josh Doctson, who's entering his third season. Doctson has yet to breakout and has dealt with injuries and consistency issues early in his career.

    Rounding out their receiving core are underwhelming guys like Jehu Chesson, Darvin Kidsy and Brian Quick. Paul Richardson is a speedy slot guy, but it's unlikely he benefits from weak-armed Colt McCoy or Keenum throwing him passes.

    Instead, the Redskins will likely resort to a run-heavy, dink-and-dunk style offense that relies on a bend-don't-break defense to stay in games. Meaning there will not be a lot of high scoring affairs. And Guice's touchdown value will suffer.

    Injury issues

    Then there's the knee issues. Guice is coming off a major knee injury. When I say major, I mean there's a standard ACL tear and the kind of ACL tear that Guice has.

    According to Kareem Copeland of the Washington Post, Guice also got an infection to torn ACL that required 3 additional procedures. This required a catheter in his arm and seven weeks of antibiotics. An ACL tear is a severe enough injury on its own. Adding complications to the problem is an even more troubling sign for longevity at NFL level.

    Who to look at instead

    There's some intriguing rookie running backs to keep an eye on this offseason. Devin Singletary has upside due to Buffalo's upgrades on the offensive line. They may also cut LeSean McCoy to save money. Plus Frank Gore is entering year 7 of his farewell tour in the NFL. It's still a long shot Singletary becomes a starter. Still, you could get him on waivers basically and there's more opportunity for him than Guice.

    Also, I mentioned earlier that Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders are available to take later than Guice. Both those players would be fine dart throws given the strength of their offensive line. Plus, that offense could be money like it was in 2017 if Wentz stays healthy.

    Those are just a few guys that stand out.

    Overall, Guice is somebody who's vastly overvalued at his current ADP. There's better upside backs in the later rounds to look at.

    Link to original photo.

     

  • Top 4 potential waiver wire radar receivers in 2019

    It's time to break down some receivers you should keep on your waiver wire radar in 2019.

    These types receivers are so crucial to fantasy success. They're not the big time No. 1 guys, but they produce plenty of fantasy stats at the WR2 and WR3 position. And all those points add up.

    Some of these players might not have huge roles to start. But as we all know, things change on a dime in the NFL. Starters go down with injury. Or they get benched because they're struggling to produce. Rookies developing all offseason get their shot next, and sometimes they flourish. So you better be there to catch them while they're hot.

    It's important to note that these players usually start crushing it AFTER the season gets underway a bit. So don't expect most of them to start producing during Week 1.

    One example of this in 2018 was Atlanta Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley. Ridley took over the spot vacated by Taylor Gabriel and had monster production in Weeks 3 and 4. Catching 7 of 8 targets for 146 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 3. Followed by 4 catches on 6 targets for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 4.

    That last part is key. You want a wide receiver who can give you two or three consistent good weeks, as it's hard to predict exactly when a receiver will pop.

    Also, two important things to look at when selecting these receivers.

    No. 1 — Quarterback play. A wide receiver's value is very dependent on the talent of his quarterback. Only the elite wide receivers can still produce good numbers without a great quarterback.

    No. 2 — Targets. There has to be enough targets to go around in the offense for a wide receiver to be successful. Some offenses prefer to spread the ball around. This is especially true if there's a lot of talented receivers on the offense. So it's important to find where the opportunity will be for a wide receiver.

    Here are some players who might not get drafted in your fantasy league worth keeping an eye on later in the season.

    Parris Campbell — Indianapolis Colts

    How he could be fantasy relevant in 2019: Talk about a dream pairing. Campbell is a scorching 4.31 40 receiver who gets Andrew Luck as his quarterback right out of the gate. The Colts were in dire need of a slot receive, so targets will be there for this rookie. Plus, he will make a nasty matchup for slower slot corners and linebackers.

    He's also not your typical frail slot guy. Campbell stands 6'0, 205 lbs and should provide some physicality if he's going over the middle. He was also drafted in Round 2, meaning the Colts will be expecting him to play very soon if not right at Week 1.

     

    Dontrelle Inman — New England Patriots

    How he could be fantasy relevant in 2019: Inman has a slight bounce back year with the Colts last season, catching 3 touchdowns on 39 targets. The Patriots are in a major offensive transition right now. Josh Gordon's year-long status is always a mystery given his past off-the-field struggles. Injuries have derailed DeMaryius Thomas and he might struggle to make the roster. 40+ year old QB Tom Brady is still under center, so there's good touchdown potential there as crazy as that sounds. There's potential for the chips to fall Inman's way, and he could see a substantial role in New England's offense at some point.

     

    JJ Arcega-Whiteside — Philadelphia Eagles

    How he could be fantasy relevant in 2019: The Eagles have plenty of wide receivers already. They brought back DeSean Jackson while also keeping Nelson Agholor. So Arceda-Whiteside likely won't see a ton of targets early on in 2019. However, Alshon Jeffery has battled several injuries since Philly's Super Bowl run two years ago, including a torn rotator cuff. Arcega-Whiteside is a similar type of receiver to Jeffery. He's a big wideout who can go up and get the ball, which plays into Wentz's strengths as a quarterback who likes to take chances and let his receiver go get the ball.

     

    Deebo Samuel — San Francisco 49ers

    How he could be fantasy relevant in 2019: The 49ers had some of the worst wide receiver production of 2019, so there's plenty of room for targets in that offense. They also have a potential Pro Bowl quarterback in Jimmy Garroppolo, who's coming back from an ACL tear. Samuel was drafted in the second round by San Francisco, which is a good indication that they're going to try and play him early. As long as he's not a complete bust, Samuel will be given plenty of opportunity to see targets in 2019.

    So there you have it. Four wide receivers to keep an eye on in 2019.

     

     

     

Podcasts

Episode 203: Opportunity is still king

Saturday, 06 July 2019 00:00
George discusses his latest food binge on this podcast. Plus gives one simple tip on how to avoid drafting busts.  
Read more...

Episode 202: Crushing mock drafts

Saturday, 22 June 2019 00:00
Want to do your own Mock Drafts for free? Fantasypros Mock Draft Wizard lets you do Mock Drafts at blazing speeds. No waiting in draft lobbies. Plus, you can experiment at different draft positions and learn a lot about where
Read more...

Episode 201: Who's the top RB for 2019?

Saturday, 25 May 2019 00:00
Click here to join numberfire.com, a premium sports analytics site to help you dominate your fantasy league. Use the promo code 'FFHelpers' for a discount. On this episode of the Fantasy Football Helpers pod, George and Sco
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Episode 200: 2019 rookie RBs, and Giants hoopla

Saturday, 27 April 2019 00:00
On this episode of the Fantasy Football Helpers podcast, George and Scott break down the 2019 rookie RBs. Scott states why he likes David Montgomery in Chicago. George gushes about Miles Sanders in Philadelphia. Plus reaction
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Episode 199: Walls of Jerick(ho)

Tuesday, 20 March 2018 00:00
On their first episode of the 2018 offseason, the Helpers discuss free agency signings and which ones have the best chance to generate tons of fantasy points. Want to win more money in Daily Fantasy sports? It's time to embr
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Episode 198: Sweet streams are made of these

Wednesday, 27 December 2017 00:00
On the final 2017 episode, the Helpers dole out their awards for the 2017 Fantasy playoffs. This year's titles include the '11th hour,' the 'we can't complain to that guy on Twitter anymore,' the 'where did that guy come from
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Waiver Wire

Is he worth drafting at his ADP? Miles Sanders

Saturday, 29 June 2019 00:00
Philadelphia Eagles rookie running back Miles Sanders has the swiss army knife potential you'd like out of a fantasy running back. But is he worth drafting at his current ADP? Right now Sanders is getting drafted at No. 85 o
Read more...

What This Rookie Can Do For You: Darrell Henderson's two major weapons

Saturday, 01 June 2019 00:00
The 'What Can This Rookie Do For You' series aims to show how drafting this player will benefit your fantasy team. It illustrates his strengths and weaknesses. What scheme he would fit best in, and what kind of fantasy stats
Read more...

PPR back watch: RB David Montgomery's pass catching ability

Saturday, 20 April 2019 00:00
Editor's note: Landing spot and age are the two most important variables when it comes to drafting a fantasy running back in our opinion. However, talent matters as well. This series aims to show you what a running back could
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What This Rookie Can Do For You: RB Devin Singletary

Saturday, 13 April 2019 00:00
Editor's note: Do running backs matter in the NFL anymore? The short answer is 'yes.' But they don't matter nearly as much as their landing spot. This series shows you what a running back does well. That's all. So this what y
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What This Rookie Can Do For You: RB Justice Hill

Saturday, 06 April 2019 00:00
Editor's note: This is not direct advice telling you to draft this particular player. The 'What Can This Rookie Do For You' series aims to show you the traits of each running back. What scheme could lead to the most fantasy p
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What This Rookie Can Do For You: Miles Sanders

Saturday, 30 March 2019 00:00
Editor's note: This is a quick post on Penn State running back Miles Sanders. Sanders is coming out for the 2019 NFL Draft this season, so we though it'd be a good idea to discuss what can do if you draft to him to your fan
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Samaje Perine proved his worth at the University of Oklahoma. In 2014 he had a stellar year. In 2015 and 2016 the stat line would suggest a decline in his performance, but that is due in part to sharing snaps with Joe Mixon.

Perine set the single game rushing record for all of the NCAA by tallying 427 yards. He averaged 6 yards per carry over the course of his 3 years in a Sooners jersey.

Rob Kelley is Samaje’s only competition for snaps since Chris Thompson will get most of the receiving snaps from the backfield. Kelley only averaged 4.2 yards per carry last season. After losing Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson, the Redskins are going to need all the yards they can get on each play. This makes Perine the more desirable back. 

One of the qualities that Perine possesses that I admire is his ability to gain ground when he is tackled. TV announcers often say, "he did a nice job of falling forward to get the first down". I would not say that Kelley is bad at this, but Perine is great at it. Another thing I like is that unlike most big running backs, Samaje is able to make people miss tackles in the open field.

Even if Rob Kelley were to get more snaps than Perine, the offense will still be in the red zone frequently. Perine should see the majority of the carries at the goal line. I would compare Perine and Kelly to Blount and Lewis from the Patriots last season. 

Assuming that both backs split carries evenly with Perine getting the majority of goal line snaps, he can have a 1000 yard season with 12 touchdowns. If he gets the starting role then he could see more yards. I would not reach too far for him, but if he is available later in 6th or 7th round then he holds a great value.

I think that he can have a season much like Ezekiel Elliott had last season. The main difference that I notice is that Zeke had very little competition. Even if he is not the primary back he can still be useful in dynasty leagues or as a flex option in other leagues. Don't get me wrong, he is a long way away from being Zeke, but if he can start off the year hot he will carry that through the season.

Published in Waiver Wire

When it comes to fantasy football, you can do all the research you want. You can track team offenses, pass-to-run ratios, and amount of plays each time runs. You can assess the talent along the offensive line, at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

After you've done as much due diligence as possible, you can start to develop your fantasy football beliefs. Everybody has the players they liek and don't like for whatever reason, and you're no different.

Chip Kelly served as a primary example of that this past offseason, when he routed star running back LeSean McCoy to Buffalo in exchange for a young linebacker coming off a knee surgery in Kiko Alonso. He even picked up the much maligned Tim Tebow and slotted him into the No. 3 QB spot. Lord only knows what Chip has in store. 

But what Kelly showed all of us is that you have to go with the players you feel most comfortable with, both in your system and character-wise. If you don't like the Dallas Cowboys for whatever reason, you can still draft a highly successful fantasy football team while avoiding their players. After all, it's no fun rooting for a player to succeed on a team that you hate.

That's why we've decided to talk about a player we strongly believe as we enter the crucial last week in August and most leagues are starting to draft. We believe in this guy like Bill O'Brien believes in the F bomb as an effective motivational tool. A certain quarterback we feel is worth drafting in the first round. Yes, we actually want you to abandon the stigma that you can grab quarterbacks in the later rounds of the draft for this one guy. His name — Andrew Luck.

Why do we want him on our team so bad?

Two words — Peyton Manning. Yes, we've compared Luck's potential in 2015 to that of the Denver Broncos quarterback just two seasons ago. If you remember correctly, Manning lit the fantasy football world on fire week-in and week-out in 2013. He scored over 25 points (standard scoring rules) nine times, that's more than half a season you had your quarterback score you 1/4th of 100 points on his own. It was a huge leg up for any owner.

Luck really started out hot in 2014. In the first month of the season, he went on a three-game tear where he threw for at least three touchdown passes and less than 1 interception per game. In two out of three of those games, he tossed four touchdowns. That's about as good as it gets if you're playing in redraft leagues and need a consistent quarterback.

Playing an important role in your team's success is also key if you expect a player to consistently produce, and Luck is to his team what Manning was to the Colts — they need him to play well to be successful. Unlike New England, a team that changes up its strategy from game to game, the Colts engaged in countless shootouts with other great quarterbacks en route to their first AFC Championship appearance since 2010. Luck finished with 616 passing attempts, trailing only Matt Ryan and Drew Brees.

Plus, with the latest injury to Green Bay Packers star wideout Jordy Nelson, the gap between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers has widened a bit. Not saying Rodgers still won't be an elite fantasy quarterback, but don't be surprised if the Packers lean on the run more to close out games in the absence of a big-play threat like Nelson. The Packers still have a formidable rushing attack with Eddie Lacy and don't need to rely on the pass as much to win games like the Colts will need to with Luck.

Now, Luck might not toss a record-breaking 55 touchdowns like Manning did, but he's arguably the most talented quarterback in the league. He's in his prime and plays in a souped-up offense with a good mix of young talent (T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, Philip Dorsett) and veterans (Andre Johnson and Frank Gore). Luck is also a very durable and hasn't suffered any serious injuries despite playing with a below average offensive line. Rodgers, while relatively durable in his own right, has a history of concussions, suffered a clavicle injury which caused him to miss seven games in 2013 and was hobbled by a leg injury last season that affected him going into the postseason.

Overall, Luck is one of the safest picks in the draft and normally we wouldn't advise to go with a quarterback in Round 1, but he's as close to a guarantee to be the Top 3 in his position as any player in the league this season, which is more than exciting in the sometimes cruel world of fantasy football.

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Published in Fantasy Coverage
Tuesday, 25 August 2015 00:00

Dynasty prospect: Ezekiel Elliott

The running back position requires an athlete to possess several traits for success. One of the crucial ones is competitive drive. The ability to initiate contact with defenders typically much bigger in size, keep your feet churning to break tackles and extend plays is key to turning a five yard gain into eight yards. This trait is even more crucial in short yardage situations where your team needs a few inches on the goal line for a touchdown or first down. One of the most promising prospects in this area is Ohio State junior Ezekiel Elliott, a running back that also possesses the athleticism and durability needed to excel at the pro level.

Elliott was unveiled as the Buckeyes feature back for the first time in 2014, replacing current 49er Carlos Hyde. He flourished in coach Urban Meyer's revamped offense, a scheme that was a departure from his spread days in Florida. The attack focused more on inside zone blocking plays and power runs up the middle. While many hear 'zone blocking' and immediately equate it with running backs avoiding contact and seeking consistent three-to-four yard gains, that wasn't the case with Elliot. He was a physical runner that used his strength after contact to wear down defenses and eventually break big gains in the later stages of the game.

What he did  

The offense involved a lot of cutting off the center up the middle, and Elliot proved very good at this up-the-gut style of running. The sophomore ended up rushing for 1,878 yards, a number that trailed only Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman. Elliot finished the season with 20 rushing touchdowns and also added 28 catches for 220 yards (7.9 yards per catch average). He was Top 5 in several rushing categories for the Big Ten, including rushing attempts, rushing yards, touchdowns, and plays from scrimmage.

When looking at Elliott, he's got several characteristics that make him a potentially good runner at the pro level.

Biggest strengths: Functional strength, competitive toughness, finishes runs after contact, mental toughness, vision

Biggest weaknesses: Pass blocking, home run speed, elusiveness

What kind of player is he

At 6'1, Elliott is a little taller than your average running back and has a thick frame at 225 lbs, giving him an NFL-like weight despite being only a junior in college. He shows good quickness when diagnosing a play both physically and mentally, and has the agility to cut off center and between the tackles. His balance is very good and allows him to continue running downhill after contact. A hard-nose runner, Elliot saw his most successful runs come in between the tackle and tight end on inside zone plays with the Buckeyes.

A typical Elliot run

He shows good burst getting to the line of scrimmage with good lateral quickness to cut off inside blocks. He's patient when waiting for his blocks to set up and cuts up field decisively and without losing speed. He has the vision to run off blocks at the second level and stands a good chance to break off a big run if he sheds a tackle or two.

He also has the speed to beat defenders to the edge and get up field. His transition from a 45 degree angle to north-and-south is fluid, and he maintains a good forward lean when running which keeps him from running too tall. He also keeps his feet churning after contact which allows him to pop defenders backward upon contact and gain extra yards in combination with his strength at 225lbs. He struggles when trying to run for long touchdowns as his lack of top-end speed often results in him getting tackled from behind by corners and safeties.

Context

Elliott has only managed to string together a stellar season just once, an obvious thing to write but still important considering teams will be gunning for him more in 2015. Though he'll have a sign on his back, he's already battle-tested when it comes to playing against the best teams in college. He posted four touchdowns and 246 yards rushing against Oregon in the National Championship game. He also ran for 230 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama, a team ranked fourth in points allowed (16.6) in 2014. It's important when any athlete plays his best against the toughest of defenses, and Elliot demonstrated he could do that.

He could also wear defenses down throughout a game, as his biggest runs typically came in the second half when Ohio State needed a breakthrough play to seal a victory.

Elliott accomplished all this despite playing with three different quarterbacks and capped his year off with a 246 yard performance in the National Championship game against Oregon to go along with a season-high four touchdowns. He proved he could remain durable with 273 attempts and no injuries.

Pass blocking woes

Elliott's biggest weakness is his pass blocking. He typically stands too high when engaging defenders which allows him to get driven back by pass rushers. He lacks the desire to pass block and will throw his shoulder in at times instead of squaring up the defender. He does, however, display a desire to run block and relished the opportunity to hit linebackers in the middle of the field on quarterback keepers. That will be something to take notice of if he hopes to elevate his status to potential first-round draft pick either in 2016 or 2017.

Catching the ball

Elliott can definitely make tough catches. He posted a seven catch game against Indiana and three games with at least four receptions. He's not expected to catch the ball a ton in the Buckeyes' offense, but it's a skill he's proven to have.

What type of NFL player can he be

Overall, Elliott is a very good power runner that can move piles with his strength after contact. He has the potential to be a 1,000-yard rusher in an offense that values running the ball up the middle and with the inside zone. A team that runs the inside zone quite a bit is the Philadelphia Eagles. This offense would be ideal for a player like Elliot. He still needs to develop his pass blocking, but he has a good chance of going in the first round based on his running talent alone.

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Published in Waiver Wire

Entering the 2014 fantasy draft, Montee Ball was being scooped up early by fantasy owners who thought they had found the next big thing.  Those that expected RB1 numbers from Ball were sadly mistaken, as a season of injuries and the emergence of CJ Anderson caused him to finish as the 90th RB overall in standard scoring behind teammates CJ Anderson (11th overall) and Ronnie Hillman (41 overall).  To put how disappointing Ball's season was into perspective, Ball finished with only 27.4 fantasy points on the season in 5 games played.  These beyond disappointing numbers in 2014 killed many owners fantasy seasons, but now the hopefuls are looking to the future... and the future's name is CJ Anderson.  Entering 2015, Anderson is going in current mocks between the late first to second round, eerily similar to Ball's ADP entering 2014.  Could this spell disaster for Anderson next season?  This analyst thinks that the clear answer is a resounding 'no.'  Let's take a look at both backs in order to find proof that Anderson is not doomed to repeat the failures of Montee Ball.

Evidence vs. Speculation

In 2013, Knowshon Moreno finished as the #5 fantasy running back with Ball (next big thing) showing flashes of greatness.  When Moreno left the Broncos after the 2013 season, the fantasy world was abuzz that Ball would be the workhorse back and repeat Moreno's numbers in 2014.  This was pure speculation.  In his entire rookie season, Ball never had more than 15 carries per game and averaged only 7.5.  In other words, Ball was never the bell cow in the Broncos' 2013 offense so to expect him to just take that role in 2014 was nothing but a hopeful prediction.  Additionally, Ball only had a single 100+ yard game (13 carries for 117 yards) and in that game had a single rush for 45 yards.  Remove that rush and Ball had 12 carries for 72 yards, which while still impressive is not RB1 material.  Finally, even though Ball showed some flashes of being a viable fantasy starter in 2015, there was one glaring statistic that should have made people realize he couldn't be the workhorse back in 2014.  In his rookie season, on rushing attempts 11-20 Ball averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.  In other words, when Ball was given more than 10 carries per game, his stats dropped significantly.

After taking a look at the numbers, it seems that there's a bit more evidence supporting Anderson's case.  In the first nine weeks of 2014 Anderson tallied only 17 carries.  In week 10, he began to take the reins and rushed for 90 yards on 13 carries (6.9 yards per carry).  Fully taking over the backfield in week 12, he averaged 23 carries per game (140 carries in 6 weeks) and 4.6 yards per carry (648 yards on 140 carries) for the remainder of the season.  This is the definition of a workhorse back, a role that Montee Ball never actually achieved in 2013.  And remember that glaring statistic of Montee Ball only averaging 3.4 yards per carry after 10 rushes?  It doesn't seem like Anderson has that problem.  On carries 11-20, Anderson averages 4.3 yards per carry, and on carries 21-30, he averages 4.9 yards per carry.  These are the type of numbers required from a workhorse back and should continue in 2015.

Wear and Tear

Montee Ball and CJ Anderson are both only 24 years old, and should have good long careers ahead of them right? While they could both have long careers ahead of them, the level of wear and tear of Ball is MUCH higher than that of Anderson.  Now, I understand that CJ Anderson has 186 career carries in the NFL while Ball has only 175, but this goes beyond the NFL.  In his 4 year college career, Ball rushed 924 times for an impressive 5140 yards (5.6 avg) while in Anderson's short career rushed only 198 times for 1135 yards (5.7 avg).  A lot of people forget that rookies entering the NFL don't have equal levels of wear and tear.  While you can't say that Ball's injury in 2014 was directly caused by his heavy workload in college, it certainly didn't help.  Likewise Anderson, even with his heavy workload in 2014, remained injury free and doesn't show any signs of slowing down.  This could be a testament to his build and the toughness he has.  Measuring in at 5'8" and 224 lbs, Anderson is simply a more durable back compared to the 5'10" 216 lbs Montee Ball.  And even as a shorter and heavier back, Anderson has a bit more top speed than Ball.  In fact, in addition to speed Anderson slights Ball in a few categories.  Let's take a look at their combine results...

* = Top Performer 40 Yard Dash Bench Press Vertical Jump Broad Jump 3 Cone Drill 20 Yard Shuttle
CJ Anderson

4.60 sec

17 reps 32" 119" 7.15 sec 4.12 sec*
Montee Ball 4.66 sec 15 reps 32" 118" 6.88 sec 4.40 sec

Now I know these numbers are extremely close (too close to call really) but with how similar they are it makes you wonder why Ball was drafted in the second round while Anderson went undrafted.

Where to Target CJ Anderson in 2015

After crunching the numbers, it is clear that CJ Anderson has solidified himself as a workhorse-capable back.  He is entering the 2015 season as the Broncos #1 back and with an expected reduced workload from Peyton Manning, Anderson looks like one of the best backs (situationally) for 2015.  Additionally, with Gary Kubiak returning to the Broncos (this time as their head coach) I expect even more emphasis on the running game.  In my opinion, if Kubiak (as offensive coordinator) was able to turn the journeyman, Justin Forsett into a viable fantasy starter, I can only imagine what he can do with a gem like CJ Anderson.  Because Ball's ADP in 2014 was based on speculation and assumed potential, he failed to live up to the hype.  In Anderson's case the hype is real! I expect Anderson to finish in the top 10 for RBs easily and could push the top 5.  Look to scoop up Anderson in the back end of the first round or the very early second round.

 

Published in Fantasy Coverage

In 2014 fantasy owners in every league invested heavily in Andre Ellington with the hopes that he would have a breakout sophomore year.  Unfortunately, Ellington experienced what can only be considered a sophomore slump.  His previous 5.5 yard per carry average plummeted in 2014 to 3.3, and he was only able to rack up 8 more rushing yards in 2014 (650) than in his freshman season (642), on 83 more carries.  These numbers are disheartening for fantasy owners, but on the bright side he was struggling with injuries throughout the year that could be considered the primary cause for his decline.  Whatever the reason, fantasy owners are looking ahead and trying to decide whether or not Ellington will be worth an investment in 2015.  In this article, we will look at the factors affecting his value in 2015 and try to figure out just where to draft this boom or bust candidate.

Can Ellington be a lead back in today's NFL?

The NFL today is a completely different animal than it once was.  The days of a a single RB racking up 300+ carries on any given team are over, typically being replaced by RBBC's.  The fact is that the league has evolved into a faster, pass-heavy style of play where individual backs serve different purposes such as pass catching, pass blocking, rushing between the tackles, and edge rushing.  While this fact doesn't only have an effect on Ellington, it hurts him as much and possibly more than other backs because of his size.  Measuring in at 5'9" and only 195 lbs, many believe that Ellington doesn't have the size and durability to be a lead back in today's NFL.  Think Giovani Bernard minus 10 lbs.  Like Bernard, don't be surprised if Arizona looks to add a bruiser at running back to take 1st and 2nd down carries, while spelling Ellington to 3rd down duties.  Now, this isn't to say that Ellington can't be a lead back, but unless he can bulk up in the off season like the Cardinals want, expect another RB to enter Arizona leaving fantasy owners everywhere with another headache.

Can Ellington stay healthy in 2015?

In 2014 Ellington was plagued with a series of injuries that made it seem like he was made of glass.  A week before the season started, Ellington tore a tendon in his left foot and then dealt with a hip flexor issue.  Finally, Ellington's season was ended by a sports related hernia which required surgery that sidelined him for the remainder of 2014.  Because Ellington has proven to be so injury prone, the need for Arizona to add not only a bigger, but also a more durable back is only more dire.  Because of his injuries, Ellington was limited in his carries this season and failed to record a single 100 yard game.  

Where to target Ellington entering 2015

When looking at Ellington's current situation, we really find nothing but question marks.  Can Ellington bulk up in the off season?  Can he stay healthy in 2015?  Will the Cardinals bring in another back to compliment Ellington?  The questions go on and on.  The only certainty entering 2015, is that the Cardinals will have improved run blocking in the form of elite run blocking guard, Mike Iupati.  Unfortunately, even the addition of Iupati isn't enough to sell me on Ellington.  Currently, Ellington is being drafted as an RB2 in most standard mocks due to the Cardinal's lack of depth at the RB position.  However, the question marks surrounding Ellington are too much to ignore, and it's likely that the Cardinals will look to add a big back in either free agency (fingers crossed for Adrian Peterson) or the draft.  Either way, any decent addition to the Cardinals backfield will only further hurt Ellington's value.  I wouldn't reach for Ellington come draft day, but as a true boom or bust candidate I wouldn't mind taking him as my third or fourth RB. Nothing earlier.

Published in Fantasy Coverage

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Now, before you all go and gather your pitchforks, hear me out... I know that many fantasy owners have been burned by Eli in the past, and it's impossible to ignore the fact that just two seasons ago, Manning threw for just a mere 18 TDs and a pathetic 27 INTs and finished as the 21st QB overall.  A lot of people like to hate on Manning because of these numbers but if you watch the film, a large chunk of those interceptions were on passes that bounced off of his receivers' hands.  Additionally, Manning was stuck behind an abysmal offensive line and in the system of mediocre offensive coordinator, Kevin Gilbride.  Manning turned those numbers around in 2014, throwing for over 4400 yards, 30 TDs and a respectable 14 INTs, finishing as the #10 QB in standard scoring.  What's even more impressive than his turnaround was his ability to post these numbers in the first year of a completely different offensive system that was orchestrated by ex-Packers QB coach Ben McAdoo. Going into 2015, Manning has more potential than ever to be a top Fantasy QB.  Why, you ask?  Let's take a look.

X's and O's: Gaining familiarity with the McAdoo offense

When Ben McAdoo became the Giants offensive coordinator last year, fans were ecstatic that they were finally free from the Kevin "Shotgun Draw on 3rd and 20" Gilbride system.  Hopes were high that Eli would immediately become a stud.  However, as any quarterback can tell you,  learning a new offensive system always involves a learning curve. Always.  For Manning, it took the entire preseason and the first three weeks of the regular season until he finally began to adjust to the new system, throwing for 300 yards and 4 TDs in Week 4, finishing with 32.1 points as the #1 QB that week.  About half way through the season, Manning looked like he finally had acclimated to McAdoo's offense.  A lot of people wonder why it took him so long. I mean he was just learning a new playbook, right?  Wrong.  From changing his drop back, to his reads and his release, Manning completely changed the way he played the quarterback position.  With an entire season and another off-season of experience under his belt, Eli's knowledge and execution of the Giants' new offensive system will only improve.

Bodyguards: An improved offensive line

When free agency rolled around a couple of weeks ago, many analysts and Giants fans had figured that due to their offensive line troubles, the G-Men would target at least one of the top offensive linemen available in Mike Iupati, Orlando Franklin or Bryan Beluga.  Nope.  Instead, the Giants picked up former Bengal, Marshall Newhouse (an average offensive lineman at best).  Additionally, the Giants went outside the box to improve ther line situation by turning to our neighbors to the north.  This off-season, the Giants picked up the Canadian Football League's best offensive lineman in Brett Jones.  Jones, 23, was voted the CFL's top rookie in 2013 and will add some much needed depth to the Giants offensive line.  Aside from free agency, we cannot forget about this year's NFL draft.  Many NFL analysts believe the Giants will take an offensive lineman (Brandon Scherff or Andrus Peat) with the ninth pick of the draft.  Regardless of whether they decide to take a lineman in the first round or not, it is an absolute certainty that the Giants will look to bolster their pass protection at some point in the draft, and it will most likely be earlier rather than later.  Finally, with Geoff Schwartz returning from injured reserve (along with 19 other Giants), Eli Manning will undoubtedly have more time in the pocket next year.

Weapons Galore: A bolstered receiving corps

Last year Manning had one of the most productive seasons of his career, completing 63.1% of his passes (highest completion percentage of his career) for 4410 yards, 30 TDs and only 15 INTs.  What makes these stats even more impressive is that Eli was able to accomplish these numbers in a new offensive system, missing his favorite receiver in Victor Cruz since week 6.  Before being injured, Cruz was on pace for another 1000+ yard season.  Fortunately, the loss set the stage for rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to have a record breaking rookie season, solidifying him as one of the most elite receivers in the NFL.  Eli will look forward to having Cruz, his favorite receiver, back in 2015 and if all goes according to plan, he will return 100% healthy.  However, things rarely go according to plan after such a major injury (torn patellar tendon).  The top concern entering 2015 is that Cruz won't be able to regain his elite speed and route running ability.  However, a sigh of relief may be in store for the Giants entering the draft.  Recently, more and more buzz has been revolving around the idea that if Amari Cooper falls to the Giants in the draft, he may become the newest member of Big Blue.  Now, while many people argue that the Giants don't need to take a receiver in the first round, GM Jerry Reese is notoriously known for picking the best available player on the board, regardless of team need.  Either way, expect the Giants to have a better wide receiver corps in 2015.

Additionally, the Giants gave Eli another weapon through free agency in the form of pass-catching specialist running back, Shane Vereen.  In 2014, Manning completed 379 passes on 601 attempts (63.1%).  Of his 379 completions, only 62 (16.5%) were caught by running backs.  Enter Shane Vereen.  In 2014, Vereen hauled in 52 passes from former teammate Tom Brady for 447 yards and 3 TDs.  The year before, he caught 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 TDs.  Without a doubt, Vereen has solidified himself as one of the most reliable pass catching backs in the NFL.  In fact, last year only a handful of RBs had more receptions than Vereen, most of them being workhorse backs (Matt Forte, Le'veon Bell, Demarco Murray, and Fred Jackson).  Expect Vereen's numbers to increase even further in 2015 under McAdoo's quick pass system, becoming Manning's number one check down option.  Additionally with TE Larry Donnell proving that he is an unrefined but talented pass catcher and WR Rueben Randle finally showing flashes of greatness at the end of the season, it is easy to say that the Giants will have one of the most dangerous receiving corps in the NFL.

Conclusion: What to expect from Manning in 2015

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career (1st in completion percentage, 2nd in yards, 2nd in TDs, and 2nd in INTs), in a brand new system, missing his favorite receiver, Manning's fantasy potential has never been higher than it is entering 2015.  A bolstered offensive line, the return of all-pro wideout Victor Cruz, and the addition of Shane Vereen means that the Giants look to be a pass first team next year under McAdoo's quick pass offense.  Add all of those with the fact that Manning will finally have a full season of experience in McAdoo's system and you're left with a top 5 QB.  What makes Eli even more enticing for 2015 is the fact that his name is Eli "27 Interceptions" Manning.  This means that Manning will outlast most other QB1s in the draft, further increasing his value.

2015 Projection: #4 QB Overall Standard Scoring

-4900 yards

-38 TDs

-14 INTs

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Published in Fantasy Coverage

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When news of Pierre Thomas' release from the New Orleans Saints broke earlier this month, Mark Ingram's stock skyrocketed.  Prospective fantasy owners were beaming at the idea that Ingram may finally become the workhorse back that we've all wanted him to be.  However, all of that changed in the past week when the Saints signed veteran running back C.J. Spiller to a hefty 4-year, $18 million contract.  While the Saints are clearly going to benefit from signing Spiller, fantasy owners are at a loss and it's tough to get a good read on the situation.  Will Spiller be relegated to "change of pace" duties, or are we going to see another true timeshare in New Orleans?  In this article we will break down the strengths and weaknesses of both players and try to make sense of this headache of a backfield.

Numbers Don't Lie...

Although the Saints most likely plan on using these two great running backs in tandem, the simple truth is that both of them perform better when the spotlight is solely on them.  Last year when Mark Ingram was finally given the reins, he posted a modest, yet respectable 4.3 yards per carry average.  Though not eye-popping, his 9 TD's in 13 games shows that he has what it takes to produce as a starting fantasy RB.  Likewise, during C.J. Spiller's breakout 2012 campaign, he averaged an incredible 6.0 yards per carry along with 8 total TD's.  Although his numbers have been less than stellar since 2012, Spiller has undoubtedly proven that he has what it takes to be a viable starting fantasy RB.  Additionally, both of these young veterans have been cursed by playing behind fan-loved veterans in Pierre Thomas and Fred Jackson.  Now that both are free of that burden, the numbers will decide who gets the spotlight next year.

Rushing vs. Receiving

When looking at the numbers, both Ingram and Spiller have proven to be quality running backs, each averaging 4.2 and 5.0 yards per carry throughout their careers, respectively.  However, in today's NFL an RB must be multi-dimensional.  The days of 25+ carries per game are over.  Today, it's about making the most of what little opportunities you have, and more importantly, being a threat in the passing game.  This fact becomes even more important when talking about the Saints offense, as they attempted to pass on 61.8% of all offensive plays in 2014.  So what does this mean for Spiller and Ingram?  The simple answer here is that Spiller dominates Ingram in the passing game.  In five seasons Spiller accumulated 158 receptions for 1,195 yards and 6 TD's.  Likewise, in four seasons Ingram was only able to accumulate 53 receptions for 288 yards and 0 TD's.  Although Ingram was playing with Pierre Thomas, a receiving back specialist, it is clear that Spiller will be the receiving back in New Orleans' offense, further boosting his stock in PPR formats.

Outlook for 2015

So far we've come to two simple conclusions. First, both Spiller and Ingram are capable of handling starting RB responsibilities and thrive in a workhorse back setting. Second, C.J. Spiller has proven to be the superior pass catching RB, a trait necessary to thrive in the Saints offense.  Unfortunately these two facts lead to the likely conclusion that Ingram will handle 1st and 2nd down duties, while Spiller will come in on 3rd down and other passing situations.  Unfortunately this means the worst for fantasy owners as neither Spiller nor Ingram will reach their true fantasy potential in 2015.  However, there is a bright side.  As both running backs have proven to be quality starters, and both have a seemingly unfortunate injury history, this combination should be looked at as one of the most valuable handcuffs going into 2015.  If either Spiller or Ingram go down at some point in the season, expect the other to thrive as the sole rusher in the Saints backfield.  Additionally, because Spiller is the more proven back, him taking over starting RB duties is not outside the realm of possibility.  At the end of the day, against most mocks to date, I would take Spiller before Ingram come draft day (especially in PPR formats).  Either way, if you decide to take either of these RBs in 2015, you had better make sure to grab the other while you can.

Published in Fantasy Coverage

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Throughout the 2014 season, one of the biggest stories was the immediate success of the rookie wide receiver class.  Whether it was Odell Beckham’s “catch seen around the world,” or Mike Evans consistent production week in and week out, the fantasy world was buzzing over the unprecedented success of the rookie class. And it wasn’t just Beckham or Evans making headlines.  In fact, for the first time ever, eight rookie wide receivers finished within the top 50 WRs on the season (almost 20%!).  But can we expect this production again? 

It is well known that the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’ has claimed many an NFL rising star (Michael Clayton, Mike Williams, and Zac Stacy to name a few).  So what does this mean for the best WR class to date? Can we expect eye-popping numbers again, or are we doomed to fantasy peril by investing in these young stars?  In this article we will examine the top rookie WRs from last season and predict whether they will rise or fall in their sophomore season.

 

1)     Odell Beckham Jr. (5th WR Overall in Standard Scoring)

 

The man, the myth, the legend.  The 2014 offensive rookie of the year had the greatest start to his career than any other wide receiver in history.  Period.  In only twelve games he caught 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs. Wow! But what can we expect from the breakout rookie in 2015?  It should come as no surprise that Beckham’s production was increased after the season ending injury suffered by wide out Victor Cruz.  With Victor Cruz coming back next season we shouldn’t be surprised if Beckham’s targets drop a bit.  However, his production may not take too much of a hit (if any at all). With Cruz back on the field defenses will have one more playmaker to keep their eyes on.  And with the emergence of Rueben Randle towards the end of the season (further catching the attention of opposing defenses), OBJ will have plenty of space to work with.  Additionally, with Eli Manning growing more and more accustomed to Ben McAdoo’s new offense, we should have a top 5 wide out on our hands.

 

Projected WR Rank: 4th Overall

 

2)     Mike Evans (10th WR Overall in Standard Scoring)

 

Entering the offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have many holes to fill, the most important of these being at the QB position.  With the #1 pick in the 2015 draft, the Bucs are expected to take one of the top two QBs of the draft in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.  Rookie QBs are always a big question mark going into a season, but if Mike Evans was able to produce top 10 numbers with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon under center, we shouldn’t expect less with either of the two rookie QBs.  As a true deep threat, Mike Evans should pair nicely with the strong arm of Jameis Winston, giving us a possible WR1 next season.

 

Projected WR Rank: 12th Overall

 

3)     Kelvin Benjamin (17th WR Overall in Standard Scoring)

 

In his rookie season, Kelvin Benjamin utilized his size, becoming one of the greatest red zone threats in the NFL.  Unfortunately for Benjamin, he’s the only receiving threat on the field, and with a less than mediocre run game, defenses need only focus on Benjamin.  Additionally, the Panthers must upgrade their offensive line in order to give Benjamin time to create space and allow Cam Newton to find the open man.  With the recent release of veteran RB DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers need to add some playmakers to their roster if Benjamin has any chance of repeating his solid WR2 numbers in 2015.

 

Projected WR Rank: 18th Overall

 

4)     Jordan Matthews (24th WR Overall in Standard Scoring)

 

As the 7th WR taken in the 2014 draft, Jordan Matthews exceeded expectations by finishing as the 4th best rookie wide out and the 24th overall wide out.  The simple fact about Jordan
Matthews is that Chip Kelly really likes him.  In fact, he had to trade up in the draft (10th pick of the 2nd round) just to get him.  With the approval of Chip Kelly, Matthews saw plenty of playing time right off the bat.  However, his production fell in the middle of the season (failed to gain more than 50 receiving yards in a game between weeks 4-10).  This was not Matthews fault.  The fact of the matter is that the Eagles need to address their quarterback situation, and if we know anything about Chip Kelly, he’s not a afraid to make a monumental deal that would give Matthews the help that he needs.

 

Projected WR Rank: 22nd Overall

 

5)     Sammy Watkins (25th WR Overall in Standard Scoring)

 

At the beginning of the season, it appeared as though Sammy Watkins deserved to be the first receiver taken in the 2014 draft.  However, as the season progressed Watkins’ numbers were devastated by poor QB play in Buffalo.  Unless the Bills can trade up in the draft and grab Winston or Mariota (probably not going to happen), it is unlikely that the Bills QB situation will improve in 2015.  A natural talent, Watkins is plagued by a poor offense and poor system.  Additionally, Watkins doesn’t have the speed (4.43-40) of fellow rookie Brandin Cooks (4.33-40), or the size (6’1” 205 lbs) of fellow rookie Kelvin Benjamin (6’5” 243 lbs), or the hands of fellow rookie Odell Beckham Jr.  Though it is undeniable that Watkins is a natural talent, all of these factors lead us to believe that we may see a true sophomore slump from Watkins next season.

 

Projected WR Rank: 28th Overall

 

 Though we’ve only covered the top five rookie wide outs from last season, the rest of the rookie class deserves recognition, and in fact some may even make a jump ahead of the 5 WRs listed above.  Listed below are the projected ranks of the remaining top 13 rookie wide receivers in order of their 2014 rank:

 

7)     Martavis Bryant* – Projected WR Rank: 32nd Overall

8)     Jarvis Landry* – Projected WR Rank 35th Overall

9)     Brandin Cooks* – Projected WR Rank: 26th Overall

10   Taylor Gabriel – Projected WR Rank: 70th Overall

11   Allen Robinson – Projected WR Rank: 58th Overall

12   Donte Moncrief* – Projected WR Rank: 30th Overall

13   Davante Adams* – Projected WR Rank: 42nd Overall

 

 

Potential Sleepers = *

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Published in Fantasy Coverage

Editor’s note: This is part three of an eight-part series where we will look at each team’s receiving core by division and analyze which receiver will be the favorite for most targets. As fantasy owners know, targets are a crucial part of success for fantasy receivers. This week covers the NFC South.

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Saturday, 16 August 2014 00:00

Preseason players on the rise

While success during the preseason does not guarantee fantasy success, there were a few players who made positive first impressions. While most of the starters will not play more than a series or two in the opening week, that does not mean fantasy football owners will not take note on how prospective players are perform. Here are four players who are on the rise after their first preseason game.

Published in Fantasy Coverage
Page 1 of 2

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