Way Too Early Position Tiers: Quarterbacks

By: Dominick Petrillo @envisionff

 

These are my Quarterback Position Tiers.  They are not rankings, but how comfortable I would be going into the season with the following players on my fantasy team.

 

Tier 1: Come with me if you want to win!

 

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Andrew Luck

Aaron Rodgers

 

Tier Breakdown: If you draft any of Tier 1 you are set at the QB position for the season—barring injury.  If I had to pick a player here it would be Tom Brady. It’s a difficult choice between Mr. Brady and Mr. Rodgers, but  the tie breaker is Brady will likely go a round or two later than Rodgers.  Neither player has an injury risk and both should finish top four in points by the end of the year. 

 

While there is no injury risk with Brady, Rodgers, and Drew Brees, there is concern in with Andrew Luck.  He is already nursing a shoulder injury after taking a bigger beating than Mike Tyson’s’ victims. The NFL draft should have helped, but there will be no improvement to the offensive line. He is going to get hit and hit hard again this year. While he is still in Tier 1 for me, he gives me the most worry.

 

Tier 2: You can be my wingman any time!

 

Derek Carr

Kirk Cousins 

Dak Prescott

Phillip Rivers

Matt Ryan 

Russell Wilson

Jameis Winston

 

Tier Breakdown: In Tier 2 you can start them every week. But not with the same confidence as Tier 1.  There are a few players in Tier 2 that are sure to be controversial, but they are here because of my confidence level in not their high ceilings but more on their high elevated floor.  My favorite out of this tier is Philip Rivers, especially for the value.   Yes, he throws a lot of interceptions in different years and yes, he’s never led his team to the promised land, but that doesn’t matter. For one, he makes up for the interceptions with 4,500 pass yards and 30 TD passes every year. Second, except for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, name a QB who consistently throws under 10 INT every year. Lastly, in fantasy football the promised land doesn’t matter.  You only care about the regular season and in a decently run league that does not and I repeat does not include week 17.

 

My shakiest pick in this tier is Dak Prescott.  Yes, I do believe it is good that Tony Romo is gone and Dak won’t have to look over his shoulder. With that said, if Zeke Elliott has a sophomore slump or there is an injury on that offensive line, that spells possible doom for Prescott.

 

Tier 3: Whoa there, Steady Neddy!

 

Blake Bortles

Andy Dalton

Marcus Mariota

Cam Newton

Carson Palmer

Ben Roethlisberger

Matthew Stafford

Tyrod Taylor

 

Tier Breakdown: If you have one of these players you could get by for several weeks, but I would much prefer having a backup plan also. If I had to trust someone in Tier 3, surprisingly, it would be Blake Bortles.  They always say “he is a better NFL player than he is a fantasy player.” Well, meet Blake Bortles.  I contend he is a good fantasy player and not a good NFL player.  He is on a team who every year is the next breakout team, and every year end up with another Top 5 draft pick.  Which tells you they don’t win a lot, and when a team is trailing that is great for QB fantasy production.  Also, now that they should have a semblance of a running game with Leonard Fournette, that should open up the passing game and therefor even if they are finally a breakout team Bortles should be able to put up numbers without garbage time.

 

If I am going to be overly cautious with someone here it is going to be Tyrod Taylor.  While I like his running ability, I do not like that both his top receiver and running back cannot stay healthy.  Add that they no longer have a known commodity at back up running back, and I will likely pass on Tyrod this year.

 

Tier 4: So you’re telling me there’s a chance? 

 

Joe Flacco

Eli Manning

Alex Smith

Ryan Tannehill

Carson Wentz

 

Tier Breakdown: You’d better have a backup.  If I had to take someone out of Tier 4 it would be Carson Wentz.  Some may think this is a homer pick, but it isn’t.  I love what the Eagles have done in free agency this off season.  Alshon Jeffery is on a prove it deal and I think he is going to be motivated to do just that.  He also allows Jordan Matthews to move back in to the slot where he belongs. As proven last year, he is not an outside guy, but with Jeffery in the fold he doesn’t have to try to be any more. I also like the chance that Torrey Smith can do something as a down field threat even if it is just to keep the defense from being able to key in on other receivers.

 

Someone I will be staying away from is Eli Manning.  Yes he now has new skill players in Brandon Marshall and the newly drafted Evan Engram, but he also still has no offensive line.  Remember what happened to his brother when his arm started to go? I can see a similar rapid decline coming for Eli. No thanks.

 

Tier 5: Houston? We have a problem!

 

Sam Bradford

Cleveland QB

Bears QB

Jared Goff

Houston QB

Brian Hoyer

Paxton Lynch

Josh McCown

 

Tier Breakdown: If one of these Tier 5 guys is your QB, it better only be that your starter is on a bye.  If you want to take a flyer on anyone, the best option is Josh McCown.  Yes, he is often injured, but the Jets are playing the Scam for Sam game and in losing will have a lot of garbage time to compile stats while McCown is in the lineup. As for someone I don’t like in this Tier?  Grab a dart and start throwing.  Even I can see it isn’t going to turn out well if these are your only options.

 

 

 

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