1) Deshaun Watson will be the No. 1 rookie QB in 2017
What Watson showed time and time again in college was his ability to win. No matter what the situation was, Watson was never stymied. With the surrounding talent in Houston of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Lamar Miller and even the emergence of C.J. Fiedorowicz at tight end, Watson will have only Tom Savage to overcome to earn the keys to the fantasy kingdom. No other rookie QB will have either the same opportunity to start or the same level of surrounding talent and with a top 10 offensive line protecting him, Watson will have all day to throw to his playmakers and is guaranteed to rack up points with his legs too.
2) I want all of the Bucs
No one has had a happier offseason so far than Jameis Winston. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers have added even more offensive talent to an already stacked group and so Winston is poised to take the league by storm entering his third season. 2016’s WR2, Mike Evans, was joined by blue-chip deep threat Desean Jackson in free agency and first-round TE OJ Howard, one of the best tight end prospects to be drafted in the last five years. The hopeful return of Doug Martin should also bring a balance to the offense and allow Winston to take advantage of thinner secondaries. All of the above mentioned players have the potential to rank in the top 10 of their positions come the end of the season and Winston in particular seems poised for a top 5 campaign.
3) The Chargers WR corps is stacked and I don’t like it
Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, Travis Benjamin and now rookie Mike Williams?! The Los Angeles Chargers have the deepest WR group in the NFL and it’s not even close. All five of the afore mentioned players could all conceivably rank in the top 36 wide receivers by the time the season has ended and while that seems like a good thing for fantasy, is it really?
Keenan Allen is the clear-cut best WR from this group but after him it’s just a crapshoot. The argument could be made to take any of the other four guys after him and that will cause complications during draft season. With so many mouths to feed it will be tough to predict who which guys will earn the most snaps and so there is a likelihood of some of the Chargers WRs being over-drafted.
4) Mike Williams will be under-drafted
Speaking of Chargers WRs draft positions, Williams’ draft compatriot and new Titans WR Corey Davis has been dominating the recent rookie hype and Williams appears to have fallen by the wayside. With a playing style reminiscent of Dez Bryant and Keyshawn Johnson, Williams’ redzone production potential could have big impacts in fantasy this season. With TEs Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry drawing the defensive attention in the redzone, Williams’ jump-ball mastery could quickly make him one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets. Corey Davis is a more dynamic and versatile receiver, but don’t sleep on Mike Williams, especially when his ADP is established.
5) It’s time to say goodbye to Tajae Sharpe
It was fun while it lasted Tajae. The fantasy love affair the Titans had with Sharpe seems to have come to halt for the former 5th round pick. While he will still be a bit-part player in Tennessee this season, the addition of WR Corey Davis with the 5th overall pick in the draft clearly shows what the Titans think of Sharpe. Rishard Matthews was one of the best stories (and bargains) in fantasy last season and so the combination of Davis and Matthews is likely to steal most of Marcus Mariota’s passes away from Sharpe. Delanie Walker had a breakout season at TE in 2016 also and his role is likely to be expanded again in 2017. Even DeMarco Murray got in on the pass-catching party last year and will turn some of Sharpe’s targets his way. All in all, the Titans offense looks ready to roll in fantasy in 2017. Sadly for Tajae Sharpe, it appears he won’t be a major cog in the process.
6) Jeremy Hill…you’ve been put on notice, sir
No matter what your stance is on Joe Mixon, he is undeniably talented and if things had turned out differently he may have even been a top 10 pick. For the Cincinnati Bengals this is great value. For Jeremy Hill this is bad news. Hill has battled injuries and simply poor play over the last few seasons and now appears to be a shade of the running-back he flashed glimpses of early in his career. Giovanni Bernard restricts Hill’s use in the passing game and Mixon is better than Hill in every facet of the game. While he still has the potential to overcome this, Hill’s role will likely be reduced down to a glorified goal-line back in Cincinnati this season and he may be in the market for a new home in 2018.
7) The 2017 Bengals are a souped-up version of the Houston Texans
As mentioned above, the addition of Joe Mixon and also John Ross, the speedster WR, to the Bengals this offseason adds even more talent to a team with offensive skill position pro-bowlers coming out of their ears. Their offensive roster is somewhat reminiscent of the Houston Texans roster in 2016. AJ Green is a top 3 wide receiver and will draw coverage away from John Ross who will be able to take advantage of open fields with his speed. This complementary receiving duo calls to mind that of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, a relationship that operates in a very similar dynamic. A versatile, pass-catching running-back in Joe Mixon serves as a more explosive Lamar Miller and when healthy Tyler Eifert is a top 3 TE in the NFL, greatly outperforming CJ Fiedorowicz. With all that talent the 2017 Bengals could be a fantasy goldmine. Yet as we witnessed with the 2016 Houston Texans, the absence of a passable QB can render this talent useless. Your move, Andy Dalton.
8) Christian McCaffrey should be a top 10 PPR draft pick
Fitting that the 8th thought focus on the 8th overall pick and new Carolina Panthers RB, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s outstanding receiving capabilities for a running-back are of such standing that it is quite possible he will play more snaps at receiver than at running-back during his rookie season. His natural ability for catching the football and unparalleled after-the-catch ability will make him a superstar in PPR formats. With the all-round game and athleticism of David Johnson, McCaffrey’s talent far outweighs the risk of taking him high in the draft and positioned on a Panthers offense ready to rebound in 2017, it is likely McCaffrey will be a front-runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
9) The time has come to accept TE as the new committee position
Fantasy owners have always been scorned by the dreaded running-back by committee approach. Fun, exciting prospects can have their fantasy potential swiped away due to a division of the volume, rendering both players effectively useless for fantasy purposes. Sadly, it appears that this virus has spread from running-backs to tight ends. Committee approaches make sense for teams with no depth at the position but it seems even teams with good quality TEs are still employing this tactic. Washington is homed to star tight end Jordan Reed yet due to injuries journeyman Vernon Davis now receives significant snaps. The Chargers have recently supplemented Antonio Gates with Hunter Henry and while Rob Gronkowski may be the best tight end of all time, injuries have forced the Patriots into providing back-up for him in the form of Dwayne Allen. The realisation of the spread of TE committees around the league makes Greg Olsen’s career and fantasy production even more impressive.
10) Carson Wentz will be the biggest bargain of 2017
Carson Wentz was not set up to succeed in his first year in Philadelphia, being surrounded by arguably the worst WR corps in the NFL. However, the offseason additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith will allow Wentz to take chances and show-case his arm talent due to the big-play nature of their games. A solidified offensive line and a deep running-back committee (*sighs*) will keep the pressure off Wentz and allow him to scan the field and rack up huge numbers. The second year jump of Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota last year raised both of those players to fantasy stardom and there is no reason to assume the same won’t happen to Wentz. With a current ADP of the 11th/12th round and the potential for a top 10 fantasy QB season, Wentz could potentially be the Matt Ryan of 2017.
Thank you for reading, follow Will Pendleton on twitter @willpendosports
This is the week. The third week in August, where the majority of you are polishing up your draft strategy for your fantasy football season. Keep in mind, it's not the first two picks that will make or break your fantasy season. It's the mid-to-late rounds where you select those 'red' players, as Redskins GM Scot McCloughan calls them.
Your studs are 'greens' and your starters are reds. You want as many quality reds as possible, guys who won't explode for tons of points but you can still count on on a consistent basis. It's important to find several players with ADP's past the 7th or 8th round who score in the 6-12 point range every week. Every year there's a few late-round gems that turn the tide of a fantasy league, and here's a crop of players that have as good a chance as any to be quality reds this season. These are the two players we're coveting most in 2015.
'Tier 1 sleepers'
Stevie Johnson, WR San Diego Chargers
Why he's a sleeper: Johnson is still a talented receiver. He was buried in a deep hole that was the San Francisco 49ers run-first attack in 2014, headed by a quarterback with accuracy issues and a coach that wasn't quite getting along with the management which eventually led to his leaving the team. Philip Rivers is now throwing Johnson passes, a quarterback that's thrown 30+ touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and is arguably the best quarterback never to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers will be without tight end Antonio Gates for the first few games of the season, their biggest red zone threat. Johnson has been a known red zone commodity back in Buffalo where he scored a bunch of touchdowns.
Average Fantasypros ADP: WR61, 190 overall (getting drafted in same group as Wes Welker, Markus Wheaton, Cordarrelle Patterson, Donte Moncrief)
David Cobb, RB Tennessee Titans
Why he's a sleeper: Cobb has been on our radar dating back to when he was about get drafted. He's a physical runner with underrated catching ability. He also plays on a team with a rookie quarterback and an underachieving running back ahead of him. Cobb has slowly been creeping up the Titans' depth chart and even earned some first team reps with Tennessee.
According to Coach Whisenhunt, David Cobb has earned himself some 1st team reps going forward http://t.co/9ZnVgvD95T— Fantasy Football (@FantasyFBReddit) August 15, 2015
Though he struggled in his first preseason game with only 26 yards on 8 carries, he still showed the physical toughness we noticed when he played in Minnesota.
Cobb won't hit homeruns on the field, but his desire to be aggressive and initiate contact with defenders makes him a primary goal line back for the Titans. Greene saw a team-high 19 carries inside the red zone and Cobb could very likely see similar numbers. He will share work with fellow running back Bishop Sankey at the start of the season and if Sankey proves to be ineffective like he has been since he started in the NFL, then Cobb could start to see bigger workloads in the later stages of the season. Cobb is also an underrated pass catcher and could pair well with accurate rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Average Fantasypros ADP: RB44, 135 overall (getting drafted in same group as Danny Woodhead, Charles Sims Jonas Gray)
Want to help support our website while also helping yourself in fantasy this season? Sign up for FantasyPros Draft Wizard by clicking this link.
Want to help support our website while also making yourself some money playing daily fantasy leagues? Sign up for DraftKings here.
On Wednesday's show, The Fantasy Football Helpers are joined by Adam Inman of FFLockeroom.com. Adam talks about different backup running backs who he thinks you should draft to your team for the coming 2015 season.
The first backfield they go over is the Arizona Cardinals. Starting running back Andre Ellington has been stifled by injuries throughout his career and the latest addition of Dustin Johnson via the 2015 draft creates intrigue. Johnson dons prototypical running back size at 6'1 and could be a strong candidate for more carries in his rookie season if Ellington gets hurt.
Now, of course it's always tough to predict injuries. But, Ellington has a strong history of struggling to stay 100 percent throughout his career going back to his college days at Clemson. Since he began playing at the collegiate level, Ellington has undergone two surgeries, one on his foot and one on his ankle. He's also dealt with concussions and hasn't played a full season once in his two-year career. It's important to see the trends when identifying injury risk, and Ellington has them unfortunately.
The next backfield up is the Tennessee Titans. Since he lives in Washington, Adam Inman followed Titans RB Bishop Sankey quite a bit while he played at Washington. Inman was always a believer in his talent and isn't ready to give up on him just yet, however, Sankey struggled mightily as a runner in 2014 and didn't look like he had any special trait that he could beat defenses with on a consistent basis. Fellow rookie running back David Cobb, out of Minnesota, possesses the receiving ability you want out of a running back in addition to a good burst through the hole which could itself to a more consistent rushing attack. Sankey will likely still see the bulk of the carries early on, but if he slips, watch out for Cobb. Consider drafting Cobb in the very late rounds of your redraft league and you should have a chance at landing a steal.
The next running back tandem discussed comes out of Cleveland. Podcast host George Banko admits he's a big believer in Duke Johnson as a potent receiving back but also admits he's a big injury liability. Inman reiterates that current top RB Isaiah Crowell should be the top guy and Johnson looked like he got hurt on seemingly every carry while playing at Miami in college. Either way, this is a backfield that's tough to judge given the inconsistency of the Browns' offense and also the uncertainty at the quarterback position. Probably best to stay away from this one until it becomes less of a blob of bodies and more of a group built around a consistent identity.
The fourth and final backfield discussed is the Detroit Lions. Joique Bell looks like a prime candidate for regression coming off a dismal 2014 season and rookie Ameer Abdullah has been drawing tons of hype since getting drafted. Abdullah is undersized, but plays strong and has the potential to be an elite receiving back. Adam and George both agreed on this one, that Abdullah has amazing potential and could be one of the best handcuff backs to pick up in 2015.
Editor's note: Our bullet point articles are written to better explain our weekly rankings, which you can find here.
Week 13 is like...totally...one of the most important weeks of the year for fantasy owners. All the players who compelled you to draft them are finally going to make or break your season. Some of you will leave footmarks on your ceiling ten feet high as Week 13 concludes, while others will be left dismayed and swear off fantasy football forever only to return like a coke addict the following year.
The running back picture this week is an interesting one. There are several mid-level backs with tough matchups. Take Isaiah Crowell for example, a guy who Casey Bass covered in his Sleepers/Busts piece this week. Crowell is driving a lot of fantasy owners crazy since he's talented but not exactly matchup proof. Well, he's got a tough matchup against Buffalo and is one of our toughest calls this week. Here's a few more notable running backs and their situations for one of the biggest weeks in fantasy football.
Start of the week
Arian Foster at Tennessee — #5 in weekly rankings
Foster owners can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that his groin injury won't sideline him for Sunday's matchup against Tennessee.
Foster owners should also be also be giddy like a bull who just saw red. Just three weeks ago in Houston's first matchup with Tennessee, Foster torched the Titans to the tune of 151 rushing yards on 20 carries and two touchdowns while also adding a receiving touchdown and four catches for 22 yards. It was one of his most dominating performances of the year and it's not out of the question he repeats the feat. The Titans rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (145.2) and have surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns.
The Texans will also return former starter Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback after losing Ryan Mallett for the season. More of a check-down QB than Mallet, Foster should benefit on short passes from Fitzmagic in the screen game and on wheel routes. There's a lot to like about this matchup, and Foster should have a monster game.
Denard Robinson at New York Giants— #17 in weekly rankings
The once-ferocious front seven of the New York Giants that doesn't get enough credit in helping Big Blue win two Super Bowls seems to be a thing of the past. The Giants rank second to last in rushing yards allowed (142 per game) and have given up 13 rushing touchdowns, which ranks second to last as well.
Robinson is coming off his worst game of the season against Indianapolis, where he rushed for 25 yards on 14 carries (1.8 YPC). The Colts did a good job bottling him up, plus Toby Gerhart was used on some screens which limited Robinson's value a bit. Still, his 14 carries is a sizeable enough workload and he managed to make up for his lack of production in the run game with four catches for 47 yards.
Robinson could be in for one of his best weeks of the season. The Jaguars defense has been playing well and if they continue to pressure the quarterback like they did Andrew Luck last week, expect this week's game to swing Jacksonville's way.
Alfred Morris at Indianapolis — # 7 in weekly rankings
We ranked Morris high with the assumption that Robert Griffin III would still be playing quarterback. Well, that's not the case anymore.
The Redskins surprised many when they announced RG3 would be benched in favor of third stringer Colt McCoy earlier this week. While McCoy has played well as a spot starter for the Redskins, Alfred Morris has always been more effective on zone read plays due to the threat of an RG3 taking off for a big run. McCoy doesn't possess that same athleticism at the QB spot, so defenses won't have to deal with that annoying 'wait and see which is guy is going to run' dilemma which should help them key in on Morris more.
Here's a quick breakdown of Morris with and without RG3:
Morris with RG3 (last 3 games): 313 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, five catches, 58 receiving yards
Morris without RG3 (last 3 games before RG3's return): 168 rushing yards, one touchdown, two catches for 12 yards.
This really is a great matchup for the Colts overall as well. Physical corners in Vontae Davis will be trouble for smaller receivers like DeSean Jackson, plus McCoy's weaker arm will be limit Jackson's ability in the deep game and allow the Colts to stack the box even more to stop Morris. Morris is still a worthy starter, but you may want to consider benching him for another option if you can.
Bishop Sankey @ Houston — #14 in weekly rankings
Sankey isn't the most explosive running back, but the matchup with Houston is now a bit more intriguing since the Texans will again be without Jadeveon Clowney. But even with Clowney out, Sankey hasn't proven to be much more than a weak flex option this season. He rushed for just 39 yards the last time these two teams played (and that was without Clowney as well) and he's rushed for more than 3.9 yard per carry in just three times this season.
Don't start him but hang on to him
Latavius Murray (out) at St. Louis — #10 in weekly rankings
We talked about Latavius Murray on our 'firm acts of conviction' podcast back in the preseason. Just fast forward to the 07:05 mark and check out our reasoning and you'll realize everything we said is coming to fruition. I know it's annoying to click on a link and fast forward it yourself! But unfortunately this web site isn't Grantland and I haven't figured out how Bill Simmoms does those links where I can send you to exactly that 07:05 spot within the link itself. But just do it anyway, it's a great flashback moment.
Anyway, if you watch him on film, you forget that this guy is actually 6'3, 225 lbs until you see him running along side a defensive back in the open field. You just don't see running backs of his size very often. Not since Brandon Jacobs (who was 6'4) have we seen a running back as tall as Murray with that kind of speed.
Unfortunately, Murray failed his final concussion test and won't be playing against the St. Louis Rams today. Instead, you'll have to deal with Darren 'fall down every time the offensive line doesn't give me a huge hole' McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew. None of those running backs are startable in 12-team leagues. Murray will be a great flex option in Week 14 against the 49ers, a team that has been off and on when stopping the run this season.
We’re past the bye week storm and fantasy skies are clear. There will be no more talk of storms and if you’re still here reading along then congratulations my friend, you’ve surviving the fantasy-life threatening catastrophe that has been the last three weeks. With only a mini bye week (Pittsburgh/Carolina) owners should be at or near full strength this week and throughout the rest of the season. There are still owners of Big Ben, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen that could be left scrambling but after this week we’re all officially done with these bye week inconveniences.
We’ve now reached that point in the season that we will all remember quite well, and that point we will use to define our season as a success or failure. For some reason, the memory of fantasy owners improves ten-fold at about this time of the year. We all have our stories about how we got to this point but we sum it up by saying something like “well, earlier this season my team was great led by those couple of big games that (fill in QB/RB/WR/TE) had but then (QB/RB/WR/TE) struggled and I find myself here in week 12 fighting for my playoff life”. For those of us still alive, weeks 1-11 tend to be muddled into one group of games and performances. Then week 12 gets here and the part of the season that we will remember vividly begins and our memories become very specific: “I remember it like it was yesterday. Ryan Mathews was my hero in weeks 14-16 when he plowed through the Giants, Broncos and Raiders racking up 382 yards and a 3 TDs, one in each game. His TDs were from 1, 9, and 23 yards out…ahhhhh the memories.” This is not my memory. I will admit I looked this up, but someone out there does have this clear and fond memory of Ryan Mathews 2013 fantasy playoff performance. The team playing against these performances will remember these things just as vividly. Which brings me to one of my many clear and precise memories….in Week 14 2008 I played against Santana Moss vs. Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Right before halftime on 3rd and 15 from their own 5 yard line, the Redskins’ Jason Campbell threw a WR screen to Moss who broke a tackle and ran up the sideline for 25 yards. From that moment on, I led by .74 points all the way up until the Redskins’ last offensive play of their last drive…a meaningless Santana Moss 4 yard catch…I lost my playoff matchup by .16. Since then I’ve had hypnotists and psychiatrists do their best to repress this memory but it isn’t going anywhere. But now I don’t want them to make me forget. That loss is a part of me. It motivates me every year and the memories that this time of the year brings, both good and bad is what fantasy football is all about.
Although I’ve listed two examples of playoff heroics, the memories begin with how we made the playoffs or how we were eliminated. For the teams still battling for playoff position, it’s time for you to determine what your first real fantasy football memory of 2014 will be, and you should use the following sleepers and busts advice for Week 12 to help you succeed in creating happy memories.
Without further ado, your week 12 Sleepers and Busts:
DISCLAIMER: A sleeper is not a must start and a bust is not a must bench, they are merely indications that a player will have a better or worse game this week than they normally do. It all really depends on your alternatives. I will give an example of a few players for whom I personally would start the sleeper over or bench the bust for. These players are simply there as an indication of how good or bad I think the sleepers/busts will perform so you have a comparison in mind when applying it to your actual lineup. For example if I am comparing a QB to a stud like Andrew Luck, I am not necessarily saying you need to start him over Luck (even if I would) but it will imply that I feel really good about him.
· Eli Manning vs. Dallas. Eli Manning is coming off one of the worst games of his life, a game in which he threw 5 INTs, so obviously those in the fantasy world will be down on him. The 49ers returned Pro Bowl defensive lineman Aldon Smith to the lineup last week and their pass rush was predictably much improved. The Giants have huge holes on the offensive line and a team with that kind of pass rush is going to give Eli and the Giants major problems. Dallas comes into New York off a London vacation where they also got to play a football game against the Jaguars. The Cowboys only have 16 sacks on the season and only have one player with more than 2 sacks. They came into the Jaguars game on a two-game slide and they took a step back defensively with the loss of LB Justin Durant and DT Tyrone Crawford. In these two games, they allowed Colt McCoy to throw for nearly 300 yards and they allowed a 249 yard, 3 TD game to Carson Palmer. The Giants should be able to protect Manning enough to free Odell Beckham, Reuben Randle and Larry Donnell who all match up well with the Cowboys who will attempt to cover them (Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, Rolondo McClain/Barry Church). In Eli’s last three matchups against the Cowboys, he’s had multiple TDs in each game, a total of 9 TDs vs. 4 INTs. Prior to last week Manning had been a low end QB1. In fantasy football sometimes, we have to let a week like last week against the 49ers go, and not let it sway our opinions too much. I see a shootout in a matchup where neither team will be playing effective defense.
I’d Start Eli Manning over: Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Josh McCown, Matthew Stafford
· Josh McCown at Chicago. Former Bears QB Josh McCown comes into week 12 having thrown 4 TD in his last two games. The experts are ready to anoint him as a QB1 in his return to Chicago. I think it’s a nice story, but anyone giving McCown QB1 status on the road is just over reacting. McCown comes off back to back games against two of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Falcons and Redskins. The Bears are another of the league’s worst, ranking 31st against fantasy QBs, but much of that ranking is due to the 11 TD assault put on them by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in weeks 8 and 10. Head Coach, Mark Trestman, and Bears defensive coordinator, Mel Tucker, know what McCown has in his arsenal and should be able to develop a game plan to limit breakout WR Mike Evans and veteran WR Vincent Jackson. If the coaches’ familiarity with McCown were the only issue I wouldn’t list him here. The forecast in Chicago calls for 100% chance of steady rain with winds up to 20 MPH. A combination of the Bears’ coaching staff and mother nature will ensure that McCown’s return to Chicago will come in a sloppy game, not a shootout between two poor defenses. Keep him benched.
I’d Start the following players over Josh McCown: Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson
· Bishop Sankey at Philadelphia. Until last week most of what we’ve heard from Ken Whisenhunt about Bishop Sankey is that his footwork hasn’t been right. Sankey owners were left frustrated by this for weeks as he was losing touches to Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. Finally, this week we heard Whisenhunt say something normal and complementary about his 1st round running back. His exact words were, "I thought he was physical, I thought he was decisive, he was better with his reads…Those are things where you’ve seen improvement." Sankey only had 45 total yards, but he did score a TD and more importantly his coach came away impressed. Zach Mettenberger has provided a spark to this offense and they should be able to move the ball against an opportunistic yet poor Eagles defense. Sankey is the featured back and the Eagles have allowed RBs to hit pay dirt at least once in four straight weeks (Ellington, Foster, Stewart, Lacy). It's no coincidence that this stretch coincides with the season ending injury to starting LB DeMeco Ryans. Sankey has finally caught the coach’s eye, he’ll get redzone opportunities and he’ll continue to dominate snaps and touches in the backfield. He’s being listed as a mid RB3 but in this matchup I see him as a mid-low RB2 or at worst a flex.
I’d start Bishop Sankey over: Joique Bell, Chris Ivory, Tre Mason, Shane Vereen, Lamar Miller
· Alfred Morris at San Francisco. This may be an obvious choice but Alfred Morris is still being listed being listed in the RB2 realm, too high for my liking this week. The 49ers are at home and on the season are the second best team against fantasy RBs. The Redskins, coming off a home game against TB where they couldn’t move the ball, will have a hard time sustaining drives on the road in San Francisco. If Colin Kaepernick doesn’t screw it up, the 49ers should be able to jump out to a lead early and we’ll be seeing a lot of Roy Helu in the backfield (Helu is a nice flex option this week). In addition, we’re coming off a week where RG3 threw his team under the bus while talking to the media. His act has grown tired to his coaches and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an uninspired Redskins team who won’t fully have the back of their over-rated outspoken QB, leading to a disastrous overall offensive performance from the Skins. It’s going to be a tough go this week and from here on out for Alfred Morris.
I’d start the following players over Alfred Morris: Tre Mason, Isaiah Crowell, Bishop Sankey, Ryan Mathews
· Marques Colston v. Baltimore. Brandin Cooks is lost for the season with a broken thumb. The immediate reaction is to assume that his targets will go to Kenny Stills, the young big play WR oozing with upside. We talked a little bit about the Cooks injury and Kenny Stills on our podcast earlier this week. However, while I do see Stills getting more targets, I think the biggest beneficiary could be the old reliable Marques Colston. Cooks did provide some big plays on deep balls, but he had been mostly running a lot of short to intermediate routes, routes that Colston had run in the past. Colston (34 receptions) had moved down to 3A or 3B in the pecking order behind Jimmy Graham and Cooks, and was even with Stills (31 receptions). It’s weird to say, but the Saints are having a tough year offensively and they may want to simplify things by going with what they know has worked in the past, short and intermediate routes to Colston. This week they’ll host a Baltimore team starting a secondary that has played exactly one game together. They played just fine at home against Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, but playing in the Superdome against Drew Brees with his back against the wall is a totally different story. Expect the Saints to have a bounce back game and be led by Drew Brees’s main men for the last few years, Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston. I see Colston as a solid WR3 moving forward in PPR leagues.
I’d Start Marques Colston over: Malcolm Floyd, John Brown, Eric Decker, Jarvis Landry, Cecil Shorts
· Golden Tate at New England. Golden Tate enjoyed his first game with Megatron in the lineup, but last week in Arizona we witnessed what can happen when a struggling offense (yes Detroit has been struggling despite winning games) goes on the road against a top defense. Tate only received two targets in the midst of Matthew Stafford’s putrid day. This week the Lions once again go on the road to face a pass defense that just shut down Andrew Luck. Word is that Tate will take a trip to Revis island, while Calvin Johnson gets double teamed by Brandon Browner and a safety. New England is the best team in the NFL and they sport the 2nd best ranking against opposing WRs in .5 PPR leagues. Matthew Stafford will have trouble getting anything going and if he does, it will be to his main man Calvin. Tate’s trip to his island destination will not be enjoyable. I’d remove him from all 2 WR lineups and most 3 WR lineups.
I’d start the following players over Golden Tate: Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne
· Marcedes Lewis at Indianapolis. Many fantasy players forget that Marcedes Lewis began the season in kind of a big way with 8 catches, 106 yards, and a TD in his first two weeks. Lewis may be rusty in his first week back but he couldn’t be returning for a much better matchup. Indianapolis ranks 29th against opposing TEs in .5 PPR leagues. The Colts should be leading throughout the game which could result in a high volume of throws from Blake Bortles and ample opportunities for Lewis to catch passes. Lewis is also returning at the same time that news was revealed that possession WR, Allen Robinson, would not be returning this season. Robinson was used a security blanket and racked up targets and receptions. Lewis should be able to take over the security blanket role. Look for Lewis to receive 7+ targets and get 5+ receptions. He's a fine streaming TE for Greg Olsen owners or teams who are just looking to play the matchups.
I’d start Marcedes Lewis over: Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron, Vernon Davis, Jacob Tamme
· Jacob Tamme/Julius Thomas vs. Miami. Julius Thomas has been reported as a game time decision but John Fox admitted that he wasn’t able to do much on the practice field. If Thomas is out, many fantasy owners will salivate at the thought of being able to pick up Jacob Tamme, the man who would be the Broncos starting TE. I’m warning you against doing so. Miami is the 3rd ranked team against TEs and has been especially stingy since their week 5 bye. Since then they have shut down each and every TE they have faced including every week fantasy starters, Martellus Bennett and Antonio Gates. I’d choose other streaming TEs if Tamme is on your radar.
If Julius Thomas does play, you have to start him, but I’d expect him to play a limited role and to struggle like we’ve seen him do a few times earlier this season in between monster performances. I won’t list any replacements for him since he’ll need to be in your lineup.
I’d start the following players over Jacob Tamme: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Antonio Gates, Marcedes Lewis, Niles Paul
That’ll do it for week 12. I hope this week is the beginning of a memory that will last a lifetime and not one that will haunt you for years to come. Good Luck!
Puzzled on who to start for you team this week? Check out our weekly rankings here.
View Keith Allison's Flickr page here.