Player: Deshaun Watson - QB, Clemson
Comparison: Ryan Tannehill
Best Fit: Buffalo Bills
If the Bills don’t sort out their contract situation with Tyrod Taylor, they would be wise to draft a quarterback early and preferably Watson. Watson’s arm strength paired with his deep ball touch and his rushing ability are reminiscent of Tyrod Taylor’s and would suit this Bills offense perfectly. With a solid offensive line, a stud No.1 wide receiver in Sammy Watkins and one of the best running backs in the league in Lesean McCoy, Buffalo’s offense is tailor-made for a rookie QB. Watson would be protected and have less pressure on his shoulders due to their rushing prowess, allowing the offense to move. This was the formula the Dallas Cowboys used to make Dak Prescott the Offensive Rookie of the Year and one that will be modelled by many teams in the near future. Watson had great success in college with a stud receiver in Mike Williams and this would give both Watson and Sammy Watkins great fantasy value while likely increasing Lesean McCoy’s workload also.
Deshaun Watson could not have chosen a better time to turn in some of his greatest collegiate performances. The Clemson quarterback has decided to enter the 2017 NFL Draft and his stock has never been higher, coming off a championship season.
When analysing Watson through a wide lens it is clear to see that he cuts the figure of a modern quarterback. Measuring in at 6’2’’ and 207 lbs, Watson is the smallest of the ‘Big 3’ quarterbacks of this class (including Mitch Trubisky and Deshone Kizer) yet Watson plays bigger and taller than that on tape, standing tall in the pocket in the face of pressure while having the ability to extend plays with his feet. Watson also has a much more extensive college résumé than his other two counterparts. Watson has plenty of experience from being a multi-year starter and with two National Championship game appearances in which he had stellar play, it is safe to say he shows up on the biggest stage.
Being on such a successful team, Watson has played countless ranked, talented teams and more often than not come out on top. Pro-ready or not, Watson has a knack for winning and has the game-winning drives to prove it. These intangibles should not be overlooked as a quarterback’s job at any level of football is to be the coolest guy on the field. When the moment is its biggest Deshaun Watson has showed plenty of times that he can be the guy.
The most impressive thing about Watson is while he has a big arm, every throw seems to have some touch on it. No matter whether it is a deep ball or screen, his range never suffers because of it and every pass is therefore more catchable and tougher to be intercepted as Watson’s touch allows him to place every throw. Watson still has the power to drive balls when needed but unlike last year’s draft prospect Carson Wentz, not every pass has a flat arc.
However, although this touch is impressive, at times it is also inconsistent. Watson’s interception total could have been a lot higher, especially in the red zone, this season as he sometimes struggles with under and overthrows. Overthrows aren’t necessarily too big of an issue, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz all struggled with overthrows in college too and the result is often only an incompletion. Underthrows however are deadly as underthrown balls allow stacked cornerbacks, under-cutting safeties and spying linebackers to all add to their interception total.
Often after an interception from an underthrown ball, Watson would then appear spooked for a few plays and tended to force passes. A combination of wanting to make up for his mistake and a strong pass rush made Watson trigger happy and frantically eager to make a play. This season most of his forced passes broke his way, but the law of averages suggests that that will even out if it continues.
As a lighter guy, Watson is able to utilise his legs much more effectively than either Kizer or Trubisky and this is one of his most proficient talents. Watson ran the QB read impeccably at Clemson and his quick twitch athleticism meant he would be 6 yards downfield before the defense even knew he had kept the ball. This athleticism shows up time and time again on film as he demonstrates his elusiveness and a knack for escaping pressure, leading to very few sacks being taken.
Watson sometimes relies on his quick feet in the pocket a little too much however and so his footwork in the pocket could use some work. His speed and quickness often made up for his sluggish pocket footwork but in the NFL this will need to be tightened up as teams will likely set the edge and force him to throw from the pocket to negate his rushing ability.
One big concern with Watson is his failure to identify trick coverages and walk straight into defensive traps. This became more of an issue against more accomplished defenses and is very apparent in his match-up against Florida State. For a quarterback with so much game experience it is concerning that Watson fails to identify spy and robber coverages and so when he stares down a receiver (which he has a tendency to do when holding onto the ball for too long), safeties are able to read his eyes and undercut his passes for interceptions.
However, the majority of the time (due to the nature of the offense) Watson made quick reads and his quick release and arm strength allowed him to negate pass rushers and prevented him from holding onto the ball and staring down receivers and he was able to drive his offense down the field remarkably quickly.
Wherever he lands in the draft Watson is unlikely to be instantly named the day one starter and he will either have to compete with veterans or simply be red-shirted. However, I think it is likely if he goes to a team with quarterback needs and is not taken as a project to sit and observe for a few seasons in say Pittsburgh or Kansas City, Watson is likely to play at some point during his rookie campaign.
Thank you for reading, follow Will on twitter @willpendosports
Sammy Watkins delivered for those who took the risk and went against the age-old notion that rookie receivers rarely produce quality numbers. But despite a respectable 65/982/6 line, there were several factors that prevented him from having one of the best seasons for a rookie wide receiver in recent memory.
When it comes to redrafting Watkins onto your team next season, there are already several wheels in motion that will affect his value for 2015.
In what could end up going down in history as one of the greatest wide receiver drafts of all time, rookie WRs Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin all finished with over 1,000 receiving yards in their first year. All three receivers were first round talents, but they weren't the ones who drew the biggest hype.
That distinction belonged to Watkins, a 6'1 phenom who possessed blazing 4.34 speed and considerable size at 211 lbs. He had all the playmaking tools you want out of a franchise receiver. Watkins ended up being the first receiver taken off the board at No. 4 overall by the Buffalo Bills, a team that endured a big risk to get him after they surrenderd a 2015 first and fourth round pick to move up from the No. 9 spot.
Unfortunately for Watkins, being taken that high in the draft usually means the team you play for is still a ways away from being any good, and that was definitely the case with the Buffalo offense. Watkins landed on a team that had a young, unproven quarterback in E.J. Manuel, an offense geared more toward the run without a premier running back to take the pressure off the receivers and to top it all off, a below average offensive line that put increased pressure on quarterbacks.
But even with the obstacles that came with being on a sub par team, Watkins set record team rookie marks in receptions (65) and receiving yards (982) and also netted six touchdowns. Those numbers are impressive for any rookie receiver, but you can't help but feel like you missed out on the Beckham Jr./Evans party considering both receivers had double the touchdown total of Watkins when all was said and done. Those one-handed preseason catches were probably enough to sway a lot of fantasy football players to draft him though, so it's understandable. I mean, look at this.
But even though he managed to string together a decent rookie year, it does leave the question. With so much uncertainty in Buffalo right now thanks a departed quarterback in Kyle Orton and a new coaching staff that favors the run over the pass, is Watkins the last receiver you would take in your fantasy draft this season among Beckham Jr., Benjamin, Evans and maybe even Brandin Cooks?
Leaving touchdowns on the table early
When the Bills drafted Watkins, it was a move designed specifically to get the developing Manuel some help. Manuel struggled early on during his rookie season, and eventually suffered a knee njury which led to him only playing in 10 games.
Watkins and Manuel didn't exactly light the world on fire in the beginning of 2014, but they didn't flounder either. Watkins eclipsed 100 yards receiving in just his second game of the season, catching eight passes for 117 yards and a touchdown against Miami in what was perhaps Manuel's best game of the season.
But if you watched that Miami game and had Watkins on your fantasy team, you couldn't help but be a little frustrated. Manuel missed Watkins on what would've been a sure touchdown to a wide open Watkins down the seam. Manuel also failed the punch the ball in when the Bills' defense frequently gave his offense fantastic field position and settled for three Dan Carpenter field goals instead. Manuel even had the ball on the 20 yard line after the Bills blocked a punt and still couldn't find a way to get a score. It wasn't so much that Manuel played bad, he just didn't thrive like you would've expected.
Sidenote: Buffalo finished 30th in red zone efficiency on the season, scoring just 43% of the time which stifled Watkins' ability to score the all important touchdown consistently. He finished with just six touchdowns in his first season and if the Bills can find a quarterback who can consistently score in the red zone, then those numbers will obviously go up. It's not out of the question that Watkins could be in line for a 1,500 yard, 12-plus touchdown season if the Bills can get the right guy under center. That of course, is a big if because of the following.
Manuel's benching, enter Kyle Orton
After Manuel's completion percentage took a considerable dip in losses to San Diego and Houston, the coaches soon lost faith that he was their guy and signed veteran game manager Kyle Orton to take center.
Orton was thrust into the starting role after only starting one game a season ago in the Dallas Cowboys' season finale against Philadelphia. Orton and the Cowboys lost that game, but the veteran did put up a 358 passing yards to go along with two touchdowns. He seemed like he was a better fit to help move the offense down the field and therefore increase Watkins' fantasy value.
Watkins takes off
When Orton was offcially named the starter against Detroit, the Bills instantly became an offense more capable putting up bigger passing stats which led to Watkins having some of his best games as a rookie.
While it took a few games for Watkins to develop chemistry with Orton, Watkins flourished midway through the season in Weeks 7 and 8. He torched the Minnesota Vikings for 122 yards and two scores, which was the first and only multiple touchdown game he had all season.
A week later against a bad New York Jets secondary in Week 8, Watkins got behind the defense consistently and finished with three catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. However, he showboated too early on a long pass he caught in the first half which resulted in him getting dragged down from behind at the ten yard line by a hustling Darrin Walls. Chalk it up as a rookie mistake, but it was just another touchdown left on the table for Watkins.
Despite a few lapses in focus, the two-game stretch of nearly 400 receiving yards was incredibly impressive and offered those a glimpse at just how dominant Watkins can be with a couple of good matchups and a quarterback who's playing well.
Injuries/drop in numbers
Despite a quick spike numbers midway through the season, Watkins and the Bills offense quickly fell back to earth almost immediately after their dominating 43-23 win against the Jets. Watkins failed to catch for more than 35 receiving yards over the next four games, eventually injuring his hip against the Browns which was one of several nagging injuries that plagued his rookie campaign. Watkins had already been slowed by several other ailments including broken ribs earlier in the season.
He did manage one more 100 yard game against the Denver Broncos in December, which served as his final exclamation point performance of 2014. But he was held largely in check against Green Bay (1 catch for 6 yards) and Darrelle Revis against New England (3 catches for 57 yards) in the final games of the season.
Orton slowly regressed as the season went along as well, posting a 6:7 TD-to-INT ratio in his last five outings. Overall, Watkins finished the season with 128 targets, which ranked 23rd in the league. He finished with a 51 percent catch rate according to Football Outsiders, which was lower than Beckham Jr's incredible 70 percent and Evans' 55 percent. A very good season overall though.
Offensive line issues
Not helping Watkins and the Bills offense was the fact that their offensive line struggled most of the season, especially early on at the guard spot which led to them being ranked among the worst offensive lines in the league for the first quarter of the season. Still, the offensive line did get better as the season went along, which led to them eventually being ranked 19th overall in pass protection according to Football Outsiders. Not terrible, but definitely some room for improvement there.
Marrone's surprise departure
Former Buffalo Bills coach Doug Marrone expressed in regards to Buffalo's trading up in the 2014 draft to snag phenom wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
Even if you put on your hindsight 20/20 spectacles for a minute, it's still hard to understand Marrone's concern with the move. Watkins turned out to be a very solid rookie and the Bills nearly the made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. If anything, it was the reach for Manuel in the first round that set the Bills back. It'll be interesting to see if Manuel is given a second chance under the new coaching staff and we see a Jim Harbaugh/Alex Smith-like resurgence.
The hiring of Rex Ryan
Per Yahoo! sports, recently fired New York Jets coach Rex Ryan became the new head coach in Buffalo earlier this week, and former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman is expected to take over the offense.
We have a pretty good idea of who Ryan is as a coach at this point. He's a defensive guru who took two Jets teams to back-to-back AFC Championships in 2009 and 2010. Ryan's winning formula often emphasizes pounding the ball up the gut with running backs while relying on a strong defense. The downside to his style is he often keeps the quarterback under wraps and doesn't like to take big risks down field, which can lead to little reward for offensive playmakers.
What the new coaches mean for Watkins' fantasy value
It's Ryan's ground and pound style that makes an OC like Roman a good fit for the overall coaching staff since they share the same offensive philosophies, but it might hurt Watkins if they don't adapt. Roman spent the last four seasons running a run heavy offense in San Francisco that had a great offensive line and a workhorse running back in Frank Gore.
The Bills have neither of those right now. Their main strength is at wide receiver with Robert Woods and Watkins. It'll be interesting to see if Roman is a good fit for Buffalo, but he'll likely have to adjust a bit and look to get the receivers more involved than he did in San Francisco if we expect Watkins to have a WR1-type fantasy year.
With Orton announcing his retirement earlier in the week, it's obvious Watkins' ADP for 2015 will mostly hinge on the talent of the guy under center as well.
Final verdict/2015 outlook
Watkins flashed some brilliance with his dazzling one-handed grabs during the preseason and his numbers took off like a rocket over a two-game stretch midway through the season but he left a little to be desired considering his talent is off the charts.
Consistency will likely be his next goal, as injuries, poor quarterback play, a few mental lapses on his part and an average offensive line played a role in keeping his numbers from reaching those of Evans and Beckham Jr.
It's only been one season, but Watkins certainly doesn't look like a bust, so drafting him in fantasy a solid WR2/3 is the best option at this point. A lot can change in the offseason, and if the Bills have a lot of questions they'll have to answer with a new coaching staff and a hole at the quarterback position.
The Helpers discuss their hits and misses from Week 6, give you some good buy low candidates to help fortify your lineup and analyze the San Diego Chargers/Oakland Raiders Week 6 game and its fantasy implications. They finish it off by answering a few of your fantasy questions.
Hits and misses
They nailed Matt Forte, Justin Forsett and Ben Tate. All running backs were among the Top 10 in the rankings this week and all of them performed well. They also nailed Andre Williams, who struggled in his first start against Philadelphia after many claimed he was in for a big week in the absence of Rashad Jennings.
Their misses include Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin, who they predicted as busts against Cincinnati and who instead went off for big days. Keep in mind, they did have an entire overtime to accumulate more stats. But yeah, they missed those.
It will be interesting to see what Jonathan Stewart will do to Newton's rushing stats if Stewart does in fact return this Sunday. Just something to keep in mind if you own Cam Newton.
Oakland/San Diego analysis
The Helpers analyze Week 6's game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers. A shootout game, there were a couple break out fantasy stars in this one. Derek Carr put together his best game as a pro, throwing for 282 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
A few things about Carr. He throws a remarkably accurate deep ball. Had the Raiders not dropped five passes in the first half, Carr could've put together a near perfect game. He's a boarderline QB2 going forward.
They then ogle over Philip Rivers stats for a second. Rivers, who was drafted as a QB2 in most leagues, has the most fantasy points of any quarterback not named Andrew Luck through six weeks. He has five games of at least 20 fantasy points, which is fantastic consistency.
Another break out fantasy star was Raiders WR Andre Holmes. A guy dubbed a sleeper by many experts coming into this season, Holmes broke out for his first 100-yard game and added two touchdowns. His speed is unquestionable and when you add his size (6'4), he can do things on the field reminiscent of another former Raider by the name of Randy Moss. He's a fantastic flex option right now.
As far as tight ends go, Ladarius Green led the Chargers' TEs in receiving yards with 60 yards on four catches. Antonio Gates got the touchdown, but was held under 30 yards receiving. Gates remains a force in the red zone, and will continue to score touchdowns with his big body as long as he's matched up in 1-on-1 coverage. We like Gates more as a TE1 right now, but Green is slowly creeping his way into flex status.
Buy low candidates
Carson Palmer — When healthy, he has great weapons at receiver to work with in Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. He's also projected for 16 points in ESPN leagues this week. Those 16 points are more than many starting quarterbacks including Matt Ryan (who is only projected for 15). He has got an easier schedule coming up. The Cardinals play Atlanta, St. Louis, and Oakland in the next five weeks.
Sammy Watkins — Guy is an unbelievable talent. Though inconsistent at times, he's utilized in the offense and sees plenty of targets. He is also still developing chemistry with quarterback Kyle Orton, a guy who was basically plucked off the street after the Bills coaching staff was worried about E.J. Manuel's confidence. Orton has been on successful passing offenses in the past (most recently with the Denver Broncos in 2010) and if he starts getting more comfortable with the offense, expect Watkins to see more consistent numbers.
The Bills also have an easy slate of games coming up. They play the Jets twice, Minnesota, and also have Oakland around fantasy playoff time. We've seen rookie receivers come on late in their first year (think Cordarrelle Patterson last season) and Watkins is as good a threat as any to do just that. His value also isn't very high right now. He's a WR3 who you could trade a solid TE2 or even an RB2/3 to get. So if you play it right, you probably won't have to give up much.
Here are a few players whose fantasy stock has fallen during their recent preseason outings.
Sammy Watkins, WR Buffalo Bills
Going into the 2014 NFL draft, I considered Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins to be the best of a very deep group. After being drafted by the Buffalo Bills, I have some major questions as to whether he can be counted on as a fantasy option during his rookie season. However, my questions do not have anything to do with Watkins skill set, but rather with his quarterback.
Through two preseason games, starting quarterback E.J. Manuel displayed the same inconsistencies that plagued him during his rookie season. Manuel had multiple passes batted down, along with struggling on his accuracy (11/20 in first two games), and being been slow to go through his progressions. Going into his second season as the Bills starting quarterback, it is now or never for the Florida State product. With a running game centered around veterans, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, the Bills have a stable running game. With Manuel’s inconsistencies throwing the football and health concerns (11 games missed in 2013) it is a fair question if he can be the Bills quarterback of the future.
In May, the Bills mortgaged a piece of the future to move up in the draft and grab Watkins (2015 1st and 4th Round Picks). Watkins displayed everything you want in a no.1 receiver while at Clemson; speed (4.41 40-yd dash), acceleration (1.53 10-yd split), reliable hands (4.49% drop rate), and the ability to take any pass the distance. Watkins could be the most complete receiver to enter the draft since A.J. Green, and will be the focal point of the Bills passing attack in the future. However, as long as E.J. Manuel struggles with his accuracy (58.8% in 2013), and decision-making (11:9/TD:INT) there are legitimate concerns as to whether or not Watkins and the rest of the Bills receiving corps can be counted on to produce consistently for fantasy football owners
Value: Low WR3/High WR
Preseason Week 1: 4 Rec/14 Yds, 2 Drops
Jordan Matthews had been called the “star of Eagles camp” according to several Eagles columnists, getting a lot of time with the first-team offense. With the high praise coming from Philadelphia, it is concerning that Matthews flopped like he did in week one of the preseason. Matthews dropped two passes during the Eagles opening preseason game, showing scouts critiques about Matthews consistency catching the football have some validity.
This is not the first time there have been concerns about Matthews’ consistency catching the football. During his senior season at Vanderbilt, Matthews dropped 7.69% of the passes thrown his way. Even though Matthews struggled to catch the ball consistently, his production was unmatched (SEC All-Time Receiving Yards Leader).
With the departure of DeSean Jackson to Washington, there is a gaping hole between starters Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper as the Eagles slot receiver. With Matthews’ strong training camp, many consider Matthews the front-runner for the job. Matthews acknowledged his rough debut, stating, “Those were catches I should have definitely had,” adding “those are balls that I’ve caught before in games and in practices. That’s a basic concentration thing.”
If Matthews can bounce back from his rough debut, there is no doubt that he can serve value in the Eagles up-tempo spread offense. However, if Matthews continues to let balls slip though his hands, he may see his opportunities to contribute go with it. But it was just one game, after all.
Matthews bounced back in a big way in week two against the Patriots; reeling in 11 passes for a game-high 104 yards. This is a positive sign for the rookie wide receiver, showing that his two drops in week one were due to nerves rather than his concentration. Matthews can take hold of the Eagles slot receiver position with another solid performance in week three of the preseason. If Matthews does get the job, he will have immediate value in PPR leagues as a solid number four receiver, giving him extra value in PPR leagues
ADP: Mid 12th