Even though week 5 is a favorable bye week (Dolphins/Raiders), that doesn’t mean you’re locked, loaded and ready to go with your lineup. Maybe you're dealing with injuries and/or suspensions. Maybe your team just hasn’t been very good. Maybe your roster contains players who should either be started or avoided this particular week based on matchups or other football related situations. Or maybe your team is loaded with Dolphins and Raiders, and if that’s the case, I feel sorry for you.
The following predictions for week 5 sleepers and busts at QB and RB. They can assist you with those crucial decisions that could be the difference between winning and losing this week. A sleeper does not mean the player is a must start and a bust does not mean the player is a must bench for you. I’m just pointing out a couple players at each position who I believe will perform better or worse than the general public may think. The decision on whether or not to start these players depends on the quality of your alternatives. Without further ado, your week 5 sleepers and busts:
· Ben Roethlisberger at Jacksonville – This week it’s Pittsburgh’s turn to take on the conglomerate of NFL backup and practice squad talent otherwise known as the Jacksonville Jaguars starting defense. The Jags rank dead last against fantasy quarterbacks, having allowed 11 passing TDs and three 300+ yard performances with only one interception. This matchup is especially tasty since the Steelers' defense is a struggling unit that has lost starting CB Ike Taylor and starting LBs Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones due to injury. Blake Bortles should be able to keep this game close or win the game outright in a shootout, keeping the Steelers in throw mode for 4 quarters. Big Ben = Big production = Top 5 QB this week.
I’d start Ben Roethlisberger over: Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning.
· Mike Glennon at New Orleans – This entry is for two QB leagues or for those who are extremely thin at the position. Mike Glennon has improved the outlook for all Tampa Bay skill players since taking over for Josh McCown. He has a rocket of an arm, sees blitzes well and takes shots down field. In last week’s upset victory over the Steelers, he posted 302 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. There is no defense outside of Jacksonville worse than the New Orleans Saints (ranked 28th vs. QBs). As long as that funny looking guy who's Buddy’s son and Rex’s brother is calling the plays, the opposing offense will have every chance to succeed. Expect him to match or exceed last week’s numbers.
I’d start Mike Glennon over: Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith
· Matt Ryan at New York Giants – Through three weeks, Matt Ryan is the number 4 fantasy QB in the land. The start to this season has many of his owners believing that this could be the year Ryan breaks into that elite discussion, but I have bad news for all of you — the fun is over for Matt Ryan. Ryan lost his starting center Joe Hawley and starting right tackle Lamar Holmes. With left tackle Sam Baker already out for the season this leaves the Falcons with really serious issues on the offensive line. The Giants defense has been flying around the field, hitting the quarterback at will and causing turnovers. A confident defense at home vs. a new and shaky o-line….I’ll take the defense in that matchup. I’m sure Ryan still has some good games left in him in the future but most of them will be at home or indoors where he has proven to be a better QB. If you have a quality QB2 to start over Ryan, I’d go with him this week. Through four games this season, Ryan has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions in road games.
I’d start the following players over Ryan: Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Tony Romo
· Matthew Stafford vs. Buffalo Bills - This is one of those cases where a bust does not necessarily mean that you’re not starting him. I do still have Stafford as my QB10 on the week, but I’ve seen him mostly in the top 5 or 6. Stafford is coming off a great 293 yard 2 TD performance against the Jets, a 24-17 victory. That game was competitive. Kyle Orton will be getting his second start since January 2011 (last start 12/29/13) in a hostile environment against a very good defense in Detroit. The defense should be able to take care of the win and the offense will step on the breaks in the second half. If Stafford secures his TDs early, he could salvage his day but his upside is limited by a a few things. For one, the game could be a blowout. Two, Calvin Johnson’s possible injury and lastly, the fact that Buffalo’s defense is not bad at all. You’re probably starting him but take a look at the rankings page to see the 9 better options at QB this week.
I’d start the following players over Stafford: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler.
· Shane Vereen vs. Cincinnati –The Patriots offense has been putrid through 4 weeks and it looks like there's no one answer that will make them any more than an average unit. The offensive line is in shambles. Belichick was benching player after player on the o-line, making the game they were playing look more like musical chairs instead of football. Brady and Belichick have too much pride and intelligence to get blown out week after week. Whether or not they figure out how to be a top team once again, the Patriots will try to figure out how to create big plays and let one of the best players of all time, Brady, determine their fate. The beneficiary of the struggling Patriots in the long term will be Shane Vereen. The Patriots soon to be passing mode offense favors Vereen’s game. His resurgence into fantasy relevance starts this week in a matchup against a very good Cincinnati defense. We saw glimpses of this last week as he totaled 5 receptions and 67 total yards but I expect a lot more going forward. I see a lot of dump-offs, quick passes, screens and wheel routes with some draws mixed in. Plus, if the Patriots do get to the red zone, he should also get a few goal line looks. 8-10 catches, 100 total yards and a TD is within reach for Vereen.
I’d Start Shane Vereen over: Arian Foster, Zac Stacy, Matt Asiata, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Ivory
· Reggie Bush vs. Buffalo – While nobody in the real world likes to see an injury, Reggie Bush owners around the world probably were not all that upset when Joique Bell went to the sidelines with a concussion in the 3rd quarter last week. If Bell can’t give it a go, Bush owners will finally get what they’ve been screaming about all year, the majority of touches in the running game. Expect a heavy workload for Bush in probable blowout even if Bell does play as he may be limited. 100+ total yards 5+ catches and at least one score are my prediction.
I’d Start Reggie Bush over: Eddie Lacy, Frank Gore, Montee Ball, Andre Ellington
· Zac Stacy at Philadelphia – The confidence in Zac Stacy among the general public baffles me. I see him listed as a top 12 RB this week so maybe I’m just watching a different game, but I don’t see it. Philadelphia should be able to control this game, easily limiting Stacy’s rushing attempts. In addition, Stacy has not yet earned the complete trust of his own coach, as displayed by his exact 50/50 split with Benny Cunningham (34 snaps each) in week 3. I don’t trust Austin Davis to keep this game competitive and I don’t trust Jeff Fisher to play Stacy enough to warrant this kind of value.
I’d Start the following players over Zac Stacy: Reggie Bush, Khiry Robinson, Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Andre Williams
· Khiry Robinson vs. Tampa Bay - The New Orleans Saints are a difficult team to figure out when it comes to fantasy RBs. With Mark Ingram out, everyone thought that Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas would split the remaining workload. Well, surprisingly it was Travaris Cadet who received the first touch of the game in week 4, and it was Pierre Thomas who played the most snaps on offense. Khiry Robinson averaged almost 11 YPC and totaled over 100 yards but again, the timeshare was alarming (Snapcount: Pierre Thomas-23, Khiry Robinson-18, Travaris Cadet-18). Who knows what Sean Payton will do now after the Saints got trampled in Dallas. Furthermore, the Bucs run defense is healthy and stout with star DT Gerald McCoy having returned last week.This unit held LeVeon Bell to only 3.3 YPC and 63 yards rushing in week 4. There’s too much uncertainty with the Saints backfield for me to trust Robinson as any more than a flex option this week.
I’d Start the following players over Khiry Robinson: Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Chris Ivory, Andre Williams, Justin Forsett
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