Three sleepers we don't have much faith in
Reggie Bush, RB Detroit — Wouldn't clarify him as a sleeper per se, but he's someone who's often overhyped. The Lions utilize Bush as more of a receiving and outside the tackles back as opposed to up the middle. The Lions are also high on Joique Bell, who they logged 68 targets which wasn't far off from Bush's 80. At this point, Bush's ADP of RB16 is overvalued compared to Bell's RB27 ADP. They're basically the same player in a lot of ways, with Bell being the guy more likely to run the ball on the goal line. Plus, with Bush's past injury problems, he's somebody to stay away from in 2014.
Tre Mason, RB St. Louis — More of a dynasty league pick than a redraft guy at this point, Mason struggled in preseason as a rookie. He averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and with backup Benny Cunningham cemented as the Rams No. 2 guy behind starter Zac Stacy, Mason is unlikely to make a significant impact beyond an occasional change-of-pace role. He could gain a little steam and be more of a force next year, however.
Jordan Reed, TE Washington — Concussions derailed an otherwise promising rookie campaign for Reed, which caused him to miss six games in 2013. He also missed some time this offseason after suffering an illness in camp. He's currently battling a sprained thumb but coach Jay Gruden says he should be ready for the teams opener against Houston. Reed has plenty of upside and is worth drafting in all redraft formats. This is just a hunch based on his injury history. Concussions to players in their early 20s are never a good sign.
Three bold predictions
Johnny Manziel will be irrelevant in fantasy football this year
While Manziel flashed some signs of growth in his final two preseasons games, including a dazzling rushing touchdown to go along with a 6-for-17 performance against Chicago where he threw a touchdown pass, Manziel won't be one of the guys you should draft in your league his year. Defenses have already expressed a dislike toward him, as you saw many of the Redskins defenders mimicking his trademark 'money sign' celebration which ended with rookie Manziel flipping the bird to the Washington sideline. There's a lot of potential headaches that come with drafting a guy like Manziel that just aren't worth the trouble.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan will lead the league in touchdowns this year
The Falcons have a lot to prove after reaching the NFC Championship just two years ago. Since their defense may be suspect, it could result in a lot of shootouts which benefits Ryan. Atlanta is a pass-happy team, as they ranked in the top 5 in passing attempts last season. Premier wideouts Julio Jones and Roddy White are healthy, which means Ryan has weapons to throw to. The Falcons added Jake Matthews at left tackle, and while the entire right side of the offensive line is new this year, the unit as a whole should be improved.
The Cleveland Browns will be a Top 5 fantasy defense this year
Offensive struggles aside, the Browns' defense was actually decent last year. They ranked in the top 10 in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. They have an emerging pass rusher in Barkavious Mingo at linebacker who's coming off a decent rookie season. Mingo started off 2013 strong with three sacks in four games, but tapered off down the stretch. He could double his sack total this year as he continues to develop in the Browns' 3-4 scheme under defensive-minded coach Mike Pettine. Pettine helped the New York Jets rank 1st, 3rd, 5th and 8th in defense from 2009-12. The Browns also have a dynamite secondary with cornerback Joe Haden capable of shutting down every team's best receiver on any given Sunday.