Friday, 20 November 2015 00:00

Episode 104: Daily Fantasy Week 11

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Episode 104: Daily Fantasy Week 11 Keith Allison/Flickr

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On Friday's Daily Fantasy podcast, the Helpers welcome guest Matt Harmon, fantasy writer and associate editor at NFL.com.

Also check out Matt's work on thebackyardbanter.com.

Matt and I discuss key injuries that you can use in your favor, optimal lineups, some contrarian plays for Week 11 plus give out bad fantasy advice and discuss Harmon's favorite thing to discuss aside from his dog — Reception Perception. 

Key injuries

Quarterbacks starting this week: T.J. Yates vs. Jets at home, Brock Osweiler at Chicago Bears, Case Keenum at Baltimore Ravens, Mark Sanchez at home vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Thing is, the Jets are actually the best defense out of all these groups although they haven't made a lot of big plays this season in terms of takeaways. Tampa Bay is slowly getting better, but the only quarterback I'd want my defense going against is the New York Jets against Houston. Yates has not fared well at home in his limited time with the Texans. He posted a 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio in seven games played at home and a 2-5 record. He was 4-4 on the road.

Quarterback

Tom Brady — New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Current draftkings value: $8,500

Why he's a good play: Gets the Bills at home, a team Brady has completely owned throughout his career. He's 24-3 lifetime against the Bills, far and away the best vs. any particular team. He threw the ball 59 times when they played in Week 2, which was the most passes he's thrown all season. He's the highest priced QB by over $1,000 on draftkings, the next highest being Aaron Rodgers at $7,500. Do you think Brady is worth that price in a cash game or would you look elsewhere for consistency?

Get a free $25 bonus by signing up for Yahoo! Daily Fantasy Football here. 

***Contrarian play***

Tyrod Taylor at New England Patriots

Current draftkings value: $5,200, that's pretty much bare minimum for a starting QB

Why he's a good play: Game has shoot-out potential. Taylor posted his best fantasy day of the season against the Pats in Week 2, had 25 points with 3 touchdowns although he was also picked off three times. Although he played poorly for the majority of the first half, he proved he could move the ball on the Patriots in the second half and eventually lead the Bills to a 32-point effort in a 40-32 loss. The Patriots aren't a terrible defense but they give up a lot of yards (2,508 total this season) which is right up there with the Ravens, Lions and Browns. Although Taylor's also scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he has played plus he adds the rushing upside. I could see him coming close to 20 fantasy points as a ceiling this week especially with Sammy Watkins healthy.

Running backs

Danny Woodhead — San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Current draftkings value: $5,300

Why he's a good start: While the Chiefs are good against the run, Woodhead isn't really a running back. He's a receiver, and the Chiefs ahve really struggled against receivers, giving up 28.7 fantasy points which is second worst in the league. Against receiving running backs, the Chiefs allowed at least four catches to Matt Forte (5 catches, 38 yards 1 touchdown), Le'Veon Bell (4 catches 16 yards) and Theo Riddick (6 catches for 30 yards). Woodhead continues to be a PPR monster, with 5 games of at least 5 catches including a multiple touchdown game against Oakland. This is a great flex-value play or even as your second RB if you want to go with a receiver here. He's also leading the team in snaps with 329 to Melvin Gordon's 260. Vegas has the Chiefs favored with a decent over-under at 46.5.

***Contrarian play***

Darren Sproles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current draftkings value: $3,400

Why he's a good start: Ryan Mathews is unlikely to play this week with a concussion, according to Philadelphia Eagles beat writer Jeff McClane. Sproles expressed frustration earlier this week after a Philly.com article reported the 32-year-old running back wasn't happy with his lack of opportunities in the offense. There's a chance Sproles sees an increased snap count. Mathews was seeing, on average, 20 snaps per game and Kelly likes to mix it up with running backs. DeMarco Murray will likely see an increase in volume, but don't be surprised if Sproles sees 10-12 carries. Mark Sanchez is known for short and intermediate passes as well. I like the chances of Sproles making more of an impact in this game. 

Wide receivers

Danny Amendola — New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Current draftkings value: $4,000

Why he's a good start: This pick is really for the bargain more than anything. There's a good chance Amendola puts up WR1 numbers this week with Julian Edelman out. The game is at home against Buffalo where there will likely be plenty of scoring because the Patriots' secondary continues to struggle. It's the highest over/under game this week according to Vegas at 49 1/2. Patriots favored -7 at home, you have to go with Amendola at his value in this one.

***Contrarian Play***

Seth Roberts — Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions

Current draftkings value: $3,000

Why he's a good start: Roberts saw two red-zone targets last week. He's the third-most targeted receiver on Oakland behind Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Raiders' Derek Carr has played fantastic this season, throwing for multiple touchdowns in all but 2 games this season. The Raiders like to pass the ball. Lions are giving up 21 points per game to wide receivers, which isn't much better than the Bills.

Get a free $25 bonus by signing up for Yahoo! Daily Fantasy Football here. 

Tight ends

Zach Ertz — Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current draftkings value: $3,100

Why he's a good start: Ertz has been largely a disappointment this season, but he's playing well as of late. He has at least 5 catches in each of his last three games and is coming off his best game of the season against Miami where he totaled 7 grabs for 68 yards. More importantly, his 10 targets were the highest on the team. While he hasn't found in the end zone, Ertz strung together some fantastic performances with Mark Sanchez at quarterback last season, including a 15-catch game against Washington where he finished with 115 receiving yards. If you want, you can roll the dice with Brent Celek at $2,900 and hope for a red-zone touchdown, but Ertz is a nice value here due to his steadiness, plus a beneficial situation playing with a quarterback who favors the mid-range passing game more and also a good matchup at home where Philadelphia is favored by 7 points. Buccaneers are middle of the road against tight ends, surrendering about 7.4 fantasy points per game.

Defenses

Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins

Current draftkings value: $3,400

Why they're a good start: The Redskins have yet to win on the road this season. Cousins is a much different quarterback on the road. In his roughly two-year as a relevant starter on Washington, he has posted 18 TDs to 10 INTs at home and 14 TDs to 18 INTs on the road. He has won just one road game, he's 1-9 total and Carolina comes in with one of the better defenses. They've recorded an interception in each of their last four games. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is expected to start, he's listed as probable right now. Good matchup here.

Get a free $25 bonus by signing up for Yahoo! Daily Fantasy Football here. 

Bad fantasy advice

I don't know if you saw this lately, but I do know you're a big Jaguars fan, particularly Allen Robinson, so I'll ask you this. Do you feel more confident when your hair is looking good? Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles was seen sporting a pretty striking bald spot during the national anthem last week. Bortles has been having a much better 2015 after a lackluster rookie year. I think he's very close to becoming a consistently good starter, he just needs to shave his head. So if you ever see Bortles with short crew cut, it's time to start him every week because his confidence is about to skyrocket.

 

 

Last modified on Friday, 20 November 2015 12:58
George Banko

George Banko started talking about fantasy football shortly after graduating college. He started as an intern at FFChamps.com before working as a staff writer for Fantasy Knuckleheads. He currently contributes to the Fantasy Hot Read podcast, which is available on itunes. He also educated himself on player evaluation and is a graduate of The Scouting Academy in 2015, which is an online course run by former NFL Scout Dan Hatman. He started Fantasy Football Helpers as a blog in 2011 and converted it to a full-scale website in 2014. Read more.

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